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NXPI trades against a final fair-value range of $151.79-$348.82, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $152, high $349, with mid-point at $249.
Stock analysis

NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. fair value $249–$349

NXPI
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-10Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature dividendNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Prezzo
$294.75
▼ -45.35 (-15.39%)
Valore equo
$249
$249–$349
Valutazione
Ridurre
confidence 88/100
Potenziale rialzo
-15.4%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$211.99
buy below · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$74.4B
P/E fwd 16.7
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
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§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $249 with high case $349.
  • Implied downside of 15.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$249
Margin of safety
-18.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$294.75Price
FV $249.4
High $348.82

NXPI trades against a final fair-value range of $151.79-$348.82, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in automotive
    High switching costs in automotive supply chains.
  • Scale in microcontroller manufacturing
    Scale in microcontroller manufacturing.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated EV penetration and smart-factory rollouts drive outsized unit volume and pricing power.

§2 Scenario ribassista

In a severe auto recession combined with an EV adoption plateau, NXP's topline contracts materially as OEMs cancel orders. High fixed costs compress operating margins to the mid-teens, driving fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. down toward our $151.79 floor.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Prolonged Automotive Downcycle

· Medium

Global auto sales stagnate, pushing OEMs to slash semiconductor orders and violently bleed excess channel inventory.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 Months

Microcontroller Commoditization

· Low

Aggressive pricing from competitors in the legacy MCU space rapidly erodes gross margins below the 50% threshold.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
24-36 Months

EV Content Stagnation

· Medium

Electric vehicle adoption slows materially, permanently capping the expected secular growth in silicon content per vehicle.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
36+ Months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Days of inventory outstanding climbing above 120 days.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Successive downward revenue revisions from major Tier-1 auto suppliers.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 55% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major automotive OEMs announcing transitions to proprietary silicon.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant deceleration in the Industrial & IoT segment growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periodo2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi$13.21B$13.28B$12.61B$12.27B-2.4%
Utile lordo$7.52B$7.55B$7.12B$6.72B-3.7%
Reddito operativo$3.79B$3.68B$3.47B$3.04B-7.2%
Utile netto$2.79B$2.80B$2.51B$2.02B-10.2%
EPS (diluito)$10.55$10.70$9.73$7.95-9.0%
EBITDA$5.04B$4.90B$4.42B$3.96B-7.7%
R&S$2.15B$2.42B$2.35B$2.36B+3.2%
SG&A$1.07B$1.16B$1.16B$1.20B+4.1%

Punteggi di qualità

OCF / Utile netto
1.4×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
11.1%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

NXPI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NXPI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $249 (range $152–$349), which implies roughly 15.4% downside to the midpoint.

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