선택적 제품 분석
허용하는 경우 개인정보 보호를 고려한 제한적 분석을 사용해 어떤 리서치 여정이 효과적인지 파악합니다. 광고 추적기나 세션 녹화는 사용하지 않습니다. 환경설정에서 이 선택을 변경할 수 있습니다. 자세한 내용은 개인정보 처리방침.
The biggest commercial opportunity lies in the rapid, mandatory conversion of global hyperscale and enterprise datacenters to turnkey direct liquid cooling (DLC-2) server rack architectures.
Customer One reduces server rack procurement orders, diversifies purchasing to competing tier-one server OEMs, or pauses cluster deployments during hyperscale capex digestion.
Super Micro Computer is rated Strong Buy based on its leadership in direct liquid-cooled datacenter rack infrastructure, which drives substantial volume expansion and long-term earnings compounding.
The house assigns a Strong Buy rating, indicating that the stock presents compelling capital appreciation potential for long-term investors seeking exposure to foundational datacenter computing infrastructure.
The analysis was prepared with the shares trading at $35.57 as of $35.57 (as of 2026-10-21). At this level, the shares trade at an implied upside of 41.1% to the house Fair value of $50.18, while the high end of the valuation range indicates a Potential value of $63.33.3
The primary risk to this thesis centers on hyperscale customer concentration and absorption. Customer One represented 28.1% of net sales in FY2026, while full-year recorded -$6,809,886,000 due to large-scale component inventory accumulation. If Customer One reduces order volumes or diversifies procurement toward competing server assemblers, would decelerate sharply, leaving elevated inventory balances and debt obligations of $8,720,287,000 to strain liquidity.
The central driver supporting upside is the company's first-mover engineering advantage in turnkey direct liquid cooling rack architecture, which enables rapid server deployment for high-density computing clusters. By shipping complete validated liquid-cooled racks ahead of general server OEMs, Super Micro expanded FY2026 revenue to $39,063,072,000 and generated $2,770,486,000 in operating income. As enterprise datacenters transition to liquid-cooled racks, continued volume expansion toward consensus revenue targets of $67,129,653,040 in FY2027 converts operating leverage into substantial earnings expansion, supporting value per share toward Fair value of $50.18 with Potential value reaching $63.33 under sustained execution.16
Super Micro's modular architecture and proprietary DLC-2 cooling technology capture up to 98% of heat per rack and reduce datacenter power draw by up to 40%, establishing an operational head start as cluster power densities escalate.
The business generated $39,063,072,000 in revenue and $2,770,486,000 in operating income in FY2026, demonstrating operating leverage and manufacturing agility in high-performance computing.6
At $35.57 as of $35.57 (as of 2026-10-21), the market discounts cyclical working capital volatility, providing 41.1% upside to Fair value of $50.18 and Potential value of $63.33.3
Super Micro is rated Strong Buy because its direct liquid cooling leadership and modular architecture drive superior earnings compounding that outweighs cyclical customer concentration and inventory financing risks.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on modular, open-standard architecture. The company's primary offerings include rack-scale artificial intelligence solutions, enterprise servers, storage subsystems, and modular building blocks, highlighted by its next-generation Direct Liquid Cooling architecture (DLC-2) engineered to reduce datacenter power consumption by up to 40% and lower total cost of ownership by up to 20%.
The company serves enterprise datacenters, hyperscale cloud service providers, sovereign AI infrastructure initiatives, and indirect channel partners including distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Its commercial operations are conducted through direct sales forces and global distribution networks across North America, Europe, and Asia.
Super Micro operates principal manufacturing, testing, and engineering facilities in Silicon Valley, California, with major regional assembly campuses located in Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Netherlands. While server hardware systems represent the primary revenue generator, the company also provides server management software, system optimization services, and maintenance agreements across its global customer base.
To evaluate the resilience of the forward earnings thesis, we stress-test a joint shock combining hyperscale capex digestion, working capital illiquidity, and competitive margin commoditization. In this scenario, Customer One reduces rack procurement and dual-sources infrastructure, driving its revenue contribution below 15% and cutting five-year revenue growth by 10 percentage points below consensus. Simultaneously, continued negative operating cash flow (-$6,809,886,000 in FY2026) on $8,720,287,000 of total debt widens credit spreads, pushing the cost of capital 200 bps above moderate baseline levels. Concurrently, tier-1 server OEMs expand competing liquid-cooled portfolios, compressing operating margins by 300 bps toward mature peer baselines (HPQ at 5.40%) while the valuation multiple compresses to 8.0x forward earnings. This compounding shock would eliminate economic profits and necessitate external equity or dilutive debt financing to fund ongoing assembly operations.
Customer One cutbacks or dual-sourcing to Dell and HPE would shock consolidated revenue growth by 10 percentage points below consensus over five years.67
투자 논리를 약화시킬 수 있는 다섯 가지 변화입니다.
Indicates customer defection, order cancellations, or dual-sourcing to tier-1 OEMs, directly threatening compound revenue growth and fixed-cost absorption.
현재:28.1% of net sales in FY2026
다음이면 경고Below 15% in FY2027 without offsetting enterprise volume growth
Super Micro Computer possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in its modular building-block server architecture and early engineering lead in datacenter direct liquid cooling (DLC-2) systems. Rather than designing bespoke motherboards for every generation, the company's modular subsystem approach allows it to integrate next-generation semiconductor accelerators rapidly, reducing customer time-to-market compared to standardized tier-1 original equipment manufacturers. This agility supported FY2026 net sales scaling to $39,063,072,000 and generated $2,770,486,000 in operating income.
The economic moat is categorized as narrow rather than wide because physical manufacturing capital expenditures remain relatively modest at $161,999,000 in FY2026, indicating that assembly and system integration, rather than proprietary fabrication tooling, form the core operational competency. Established enterprise hardware competitors such as HPQ, which operates at a 5.40% operating margin, possess extensive global distribution and support networks capable of narrowing the time-to-market gap as liquid cooling solutions commoditize.
Economic profits remain robust during cluster deployment cycles, with FY2026 pre-tax return on invested capital reaching approximately 14.60% against invested capital of $18,973,481,000, clearing the moderate cost of capital hurdle of 12.19%. However, high counterparty concentration, where Customer One accounted for 28.1% of sales in FY2026, exposes excess returns to renegotiation pressure, bounding the expected durability of competitive advantage to intermediate technology cycles.
Pre-tax return on invested capital of 14.60% (operating income of $2,770,486,000 on invested capital of $18,973,481,000) exceeds the moderate cost of equity of 12.19%, confirming economic value creation during AI infrastructure deployment phases, though capital intensity and working capital lockup constrain net cash returns.256
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($50.18). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The Bull scenario projects accelerated enterprise adoption of proprietary liquid cooling racks and rapid international expansion across sovereign cloud initiatives. Under this path, the target price reaches $63.33 with an assigned probability of 20.0%, representing an implied return of 78.0% from $35.57 as of $35.57 (as of 2026-10-21). For this outcome to materialize, Super Micro must successfully broaden its customer base beyond the primary counterparty, expand higher-margin software and service agreements, and sustain a multi-quarter engineering lead over competitors. The scenario would be disconfirmed if international cloud buildouts decelerate or if silicon supply constraints delay high-density rack deliveries through FY2028.37
A decisive beat confirms that direct liquid cooling adoption is accelerating across enterprise and sovereign cloud customers, converting backlog into cash receipts and validating operating leverage without sacrificing gross margin.
An inline result validates the multi-year datacenter infrastructure buildout thesis while confirming that component supply allocations and rack deployments remain on scheduled delivery milestones.
A material miss would signal that hyperscale customer procurement is pausing, tier-one server OEMs are eroding liquid cooling pricing power, or inventory obsolescence charges are emerging during accelerator platform transitions.
Super Micro's reported operating earnings reflect substantial top-line expansion, but earnings quality is constrained by working capital requirements. The divergence between GAAP net income and operating cash flow stems from component inventory accumulation and customer receivables necessary to support large-scale server rack assembly. Sustainable earnings quality will depend on cash conversion cycles normalizing as completed server clusters are delivered and accepted by hyperscale customers, allowing balance sheet liquidity to regenerate without further debt expansion.36
Consensus estimate momentum has moved upward across recent revision windows, led by expanding datacenter server cluster deliveries and rising adoption of direct liquid cooling rack solutions. Upward revisions to near-term earnings expectations reflect transparent order backlogs for high-density computing platforms, while forward projections incorporate moderating growth rates as datacenter infrastructure transitions into standard hardware deployment cadences.1
Expansion of direct liquid cooling rack shipments reveals whether Super Micro retains its engineering lead over general server OEMs as datacenter thermal requirements escalate, driving revenue growth and operating leverage.
Operating cash flow in FY2026 recorded a significant deficit of -$6,809,886,000, yielding free cash flow of -$6,971,885,000 after capital expenditures of $161,999,000. This cash outflow contrasted sharply with GAAP net income of $2,230,453,000. The substantial variance was driven by working capital absorption, specifically procurement of expensive GPU accelerators, liquid cooling manifolds, and power delivery subsystems to fulfill rapid hyperscale server rack orders. As rack installations are completed, accepted, and paid for by customers, operating cash flow is expected to recover, though near-term liquidity remains tethered to customer payment timeliness and credit facility availability.56
Super Micro's capital allocation is focused on funding working capital needs and targeted manufacturing footprint expansion rather than shareholder dividends or large-scale share repurchases. In FY2026, were $161,999,000, dedicated to expanding liquid cooling test bays and assembly capacity across Silicon Valley, Taiwan, and Malaysia. Meanwhile, research and development spending totaled $771,232,000, reinforcing engineering integration with next-generation GPU platforms. To finance massive component inventory builds, total debt expanded to $8,720,287,000, prioritizing scale acquisition over balance sheet de-leveraging.
Pre-tax return on invested capital stands at approximately 14.60% based on $2,770,486,000 in operating income on $18,973,481,000 in invested capital, reflecting high asset turnover and operational leverage during compute infrastructure buildouts.
Pre-tax ROIC of 14.60% exceeds the moderate cost of equity hurdle of 12.19%, confirming economic value creation at present operating levels, though working capital expansion keeps invested capital high.
| 매출 | US$11,119,777,000 |
|---|---|
| 매출원가 | US$9,177,146,000 |
| 매출총이익 | US$1,942,631,000 |
| 영업비용 | US$454,567,000 |
| 영업이익 | US$1,488,064,000 |
| 영업외 항목 및 세금 | -US$309,847,000 |
| 순이익 | US$1,178,217,000 |
| 총자산 | US$29,945,467,000 |
|---|---|
| 현금 | US$7,521,474,000 |
| 유동자산 | US$27,726,252,000 |
| 총부채 | US$15,465,851,000 |
| 유동부채 | US$7,160,106,000 |
| 주주자본 | US$14,479,616,000 |
| 순이익 | US$1,048,854,000 |
|---|---|
| 영업 현금 유입 | US$1,659,524,000 |
| 감가상각비 | US$41,000,000 |
| 주식 기반 보상 | US$314,452,000 |
| 기타 영업 조정 | US$255,218,000 |
| 영업 현금흐름 | US$1,659,524,000 |
| 사용 가능 현금 | US$5,355,515,000 |
| 기초 현금 | US$1,670,273,000 |
| 재무 현금 유입 | US$2,024,045,000 |
| 환율 효과 | US$1,673,000 |
| 투자 현금 유출 | US$183,214,000 |
| 자본적 지출 | US$127,214,000 |
| 기타 투자 활동 | US$56,000,000 |
| 기말 현금 | US$5,172,301,000 |
| 투자 현금흐름 | -US$183,214,000 |
| 재무 현금흐름 | US$2,024,045,000 |
| 사업 범주별 매출 | 매출 | 비중 | 전년 대비 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of | 91.8억 | 82.5% | — |
| Other | 19.4억 | 17.5% | — |
출처: SEC EDGAR · 제출일 2026-08-31 · SEC EDGAR
| 지역별 매출 | 매출 | 비중 | 전년 대비 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$276.9억 | 70.9% | 112.1% |
| Asia | US$60.6억 | 15.5% | 10.4% |
| Europe | US$26.7억 | 6.8% | -1.9% |
| Other | US$26.4억 | 6.7% | 277.4% |
2026-10-22 분석에 사용된 시점 재무 데이터입니다.
| 기간 | 매출 | EBITDA | 순이익 | 영업 현금흐름 | 잉여 현금흐름 | 자본적 지출 | 감가상각비 | 주식 기반 보상 | 자사주 매입 | 지급 배당금 | 순부채 발행 | 투자 현금흐름 | 재무 현금흐름 | 기초 현금 | 기말 현금 | 현금 및 투자자산 | 총부채 | 영업이익률 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC 스프레드 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | US$24.8억 | US$1.1억 | US$6685.4만 | -US$9618.8만 | -US$1.3억 | US$2936.5만 | US$1635.7만 | US$1966.5만 | US$1846.1만 | — | — | -US$2936.5만 | US$5772.4만 | — | US$1.1억 | US$1.1억 | US$2.5억 | 3.8% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2018-06-30 | US$33.6억 | US$1.2억 | US$4616.5만 | US$8434.7만 | US$5952.3만 | US$2482.4만 | US$2184.6만 | US$2465.6만 | US$0 | — | — | -US$2592.4만 | -US$5083.2만 | US$1.1억 | US$1.2억 | US$1.2억 | US$1.2억 | 2.8% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2019-06-30 | US$35억 | US$1.2억 | US$7191.8만 | US$2.6억 | US$2.4억 | US$2484.9만 | US$2420.2만 | US$2118.4만 | US$0 | — | — | -US$2484.9만 | -US$9582.8만 | US$1.2억 | US$2.6억 | US$2.6억 | US$0 | 2.8% | — | 7.2% | — |
| 2020-06-30 | US$33.4억 | US$1.2억 | US$8430.8만 | -US$3033.4만 | -US$7467.2만 | US$4433.8만 | US$2847.2만 | US$2018.9만 | — | US$2010만 | — | -US$4358.8만 | US$2379.6만 | US$2.6억 | US$2.1억 | US$2.1억 | US$569.7만 | 2.6% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2021-06-30 | US$35.6억 | US$3.8억 | US$1.1억 | US$1.2억 | US$6493.9만 | US$5801.6만 | US$2818.5만 | US$2854.9만 | — | US$2838.7만 | — | -US$5801.6만 | -US$4444만 | US$2.1억 | US$2.3억 | US$2.4억 | US$3470만 | 3.5% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2022-06-30 | US$52억 | US$3.8억 | US$2.9억 | -US$4.4억 | -US$4.9억 | US$4518.2만 | US$2480만 | US$3281.6만 | US$0 | US$1008.1만 | US$5.1억 | -US$4628.2만 | US$5.2억 | US$2.3억 | US$2.7억 | US$2.7억 | US$1.5억 | 6.5% | — | 7.5% | — |
| 2023-06-30 | US$71.2억 | US$8억 | US$6.4억 | US$6.6억 | US$6.3억 | US$3679.3만 | US$2690만 | US$5443.3만 | US$1.5억 | US$3046.6만 | -US$3억 | -US$3948.6만 | -US$4.5억 | US$2.7억 | US$4.4억 | US$4.4억 | US$1.2억 | 10.7% | — | 8.9% | — |
| 2024-06-30 | US$149.9억 | US$12.9억 | US$11.5억 | -US$24.9억 | -US$26.1억 | US$1.2억 | US$3010만 | US$2.3억 | US$0 | — | US$18.8억 | -US$1.9억 | US$39.1억 | US$4.4억 | US$16.7억 | US$16.7억 | US$21.7억 | 8.1% | — | 9.6% | — |
| 2025-06-30 | US$219.7억 | US$13.3억 | US$10.5억 | US$16.6억 | US$15.3억 | US$1.3억 | US$4100만 | US$3.1억 | US$2억 | — | US$25.6억 | -US$1.8억 | US$20.2억 | US$16.7억 | US$51.7억 | US$51.7억 | US$47.8억 | 5.7% | — | 9.2% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | US$390.6억 | US$30.4억 | US$22.3억 | -US$68.1억 | -US$69.7억 | US$1.6억 | US$5300만 | US$4.1억 | US$99.6만 | — | US$39.5억 | -US$2억 | US$94.8억 | US$51.7억 | US$76.3억 | US$75.2억 | US$87.2억 | 7.1% | — | 8.7% | — |
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) trades at 10.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 9.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.4x compares with a peer median of 15.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: IonQ, Inc., HP Inc., Western Digital Corporation and Sandisk Corporation, as of 2026-10-21.
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.9% and industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 1.2, confirming an active capital expenditure buildout phase across IT hardware infrastructure. Concurrently, Super Micro invested $161,999,000 in capex in FY2026 while expanding facilities in Silicon Valley, Taiwan, and Malaysia.6
In the bull phase of the cycle, hyperscale cloud service providers and sovereign AI initiatives accelerate cluster deployments, prioritizing speed-to-market and high thermal efficiency over unit pricing. Super Micro benefits disproportionately as its direct liquid cooling solutions capture surging order flow, expanding FY2026 net sales of $39,063,072,000 toward consensus FY2027 expectations of $67,129,653,040, while fixed cost absorption supports operating margins above 7.2%.
In the bear phase of the cycle, hyperscale customers pause server cluster procurement to digest existing compute capacity, shifting order allocation toward multi-vendor dual sourcing. As customer order frequency decelerates, severe working capital absorption creates cash flow strain (evidenced by FY2026 operating cash flow of -$6,809,886,000), forcing price concessions that push operating margins down toward mature server peer levels such as HPQ's 5.40%.
Super Micro is strategically positioned as a rapid-deployment, high-efficiency server specialist bridging semiconductor silicon releases and enterprise datacenter deployments. While it operates with lower capital expenditure intensity ($161,999,000 in FY2026) than semiconductor fabricators, its negative operating cash flow (-$6,809,886,000) reflects heavy working capital commitment to fund rack assembly, leaving the company vulnerable during sudden demand pauses but well-leveraged during deployment surges.6
A moderate position sizing reflects substantial upside potential tempered by single-customer revenue concentration and working capital absorption. While the house Fair value indicates compelling undervaluation, sizing must accommodate cyclical order volatility and semiconductor platform transition timelines.67
Position risk is controlled by capping maximum portfolio allocation at the recommended weight, enforcing disciplined entry with an adequate margin of safety relative to Fair value, and conducting rigorous quarterly checkpoint audits against customer concentration and working capital absorption. If quarterly milestones fail to materialize, exposure is systematically trimmed to protect capital against cyclical hardware digestion risks.
At $35.57 as of $35.57 (as of 2026-10-21), the market assigns an attractive valuation that does not reflect Super Micro's expanding operating earnings power of $2,770,486,000, offering 41.1% upside to Fair value of $50.18.36
The structural transition toward liquid-cooled datacenter racks positions Super Micro to capture outsized market share as cluster compute densities increase, driving revenue toward consensus expectations of $67,129,653,040 in FY2027 and supporting Potential value of $63.33.1
While customer concentration and working capital cash flow volatility require active risk monitoring, the company's modular time-to-market advantage provides substantial earnings leverage as GPU server clusters are commissioned globally.67
Super Micro Computer warrants a Strong Buy rating based on its established operational leadership in direct liquid cooling datacenter server architectures, rapid top-line scaling to $39,063,072,000 in FY2026, and substantial upside of 41.1% to Fair value of $50.18.6
While single-counterparty customer concentration and working capital absorption of -$6,809,886,000 present cyclical balance sheet risks, robust forward earnings compounding and modular engineering capabilities support Potential value reaching $63.33 under continued execution.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The Bear scenario reflects the downside risk of hyperscale customer capex digestion, pricing competition from legacy server OEMs, and balance sheet stress from working capital absorption. If Customer One cuts server rack orders or dual-sources rack infrastructure, revenue growth would decelerate while inventory lockup and debt obligations strain corporate liquidity. This scenario would be confirmed if gross margins breach key operating thresholds or if operating cash flow remains negative through FY2027.
Negative operating cash flow and high total debt trigger liquidity refinancing stress, elevating the cost of capital by 200 bps as market WACC asserts dominance over moderate rates.36
Tier-1 server OEMs and ODMs expand liquid cooling offerings, driving price competition and causing operating margin to contract by 300 bps across the forecast horizon toward peer levels.46
Market de-rates SMCI from forward P/E of 10.15x down 20% to 8.0x as AI server hardware hypergrowth transitions into standard replacement cycles.3
Signals acute working capital lockup in component inventory and receivables, elevating liquidity strain and refinancing risks across $8,720,287,000 in debt obligations.
현재:-$6,809,886,000 in FY2026
다음이면 경고Remaining negative through full-year FY2027 as revenue scales above $65B
Reveals erosion of direct liquid cooling pricing premiums toward legacy server peer levels (HPQ at 5.40%) under aggressive OEM competition.
현재:7.09% operating margin in FY2026
다음이면 경고Falling below 4.5% across the forecast horizon
Signals export-control friction or localized server assembler displacement in key Asian datacenter markets.
현재:$6,063,327,000 in FY2026
다음이면 경고Zero or negative year-over-year revenue growth in FY2027
Reflects sluggish international datacenter expansion, leaving revenue heavily concentrated in the domestic US market ($27,690,067,000).
현재:6.8% of net sales ($2,674,494,000) in FY2026
다음이면 경고Falling below 5.0% of consolidated sales in FY2027
| Offering flexible server architecture compatible with both merchant accelerators and custom proprietary silicon. |
| Geographic Supply Chain and Trade Friction in International Markets | medium | 12 to 18 months | Diversifying global assembly operations across Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Netherlands to mitigate localized regulatory and trade barriers. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$18.10 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$45.40 from the long-term value, totaling US$63.50.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
The Base scenario models the modal trajectory for Super Micro, where the company sustains direct liquid cooling leadership and scales server rack deployments across enterprise and cloud datacenter operators. Under this path, the target price reaches $50.18 with an assigned probability of 55.0%, offering an implied return of 41.1% from $35.57 as of $35.57 (as of 2026-10-21). For this outcome to materialize, datacenter power densities must continue requiring liquid cooling solutions, Customer One must maintain predictable procurement cadences, and operating cash flow must gradually normalize as inventory converts into customer deliveries. The scenario would be disconfirmed if tier-one server OEMs capture liquid cooling share or if customer procurement pauses, which investors would detect through quarterly gross margin contraction or multi-quarter order deceleration by late FY2027.3467
Operating cash flow turnaround indicates that accumulated server inventory is being successfully delivered, invoiced, and converted to cash, reducing debt refinancing risk and financing expenses.6
Operating margin durability reveals whether liquid-cooled server solutions command premium pricing over standard architectures or face pricing pressure from tier-one server assemblers.4
Revenue growth across Asian and European datacenter clusters reveals progress in expanding beyond domestic hyperscale customers, improving business resilience against regional capex digestion.7
| $88.21B |
| $95.26B |
| $100.03B |
| Operating income | $4.83B | $5.83B | $6.44B | $6.76B | $7.00B |
| NOPAT | $4.11B | $4.96B | $5.48B | $5.76B | $5.96B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $4.10B | $4.95B | $5.47B | $5.74B | $5.94B |
| Revenue growth | 71.9% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 14.9% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
FY2026 revenue rose to $39,063,072,000 and operating income reached $2,770,486,000, but operating cash flow dropped to -$6,809,886,000 and free cash flow reached -$6,971,885,000.
Significant working capital lockup in server components and customer receivables requires heavy external liquidity, constraining free cash flow until inventory turns into delivered cash receipts.
Total debt climbed to $8,720,287,000 as of June 30, 2026, while physical capital expenditure was limited to $161,999,000.
Debt was deployed primarily to finance working capital rather than physical property and plant, creating balance sheet sensitivity to customer payment cycles and credit spread changes.
Customer One contributed 28.1% of FY2026 net sales, compared to FY2025 where sales were distributed across four customers (20.9%, 11.5%, 11.3%, and 11.1%).
A disruption, delay, or dual-sourcing event by Customer One would immediately compress operating margins and revenue run-rates.
Service and software revenue reached $538,300,000 in FY2026, with pure service revenue at $420,300,000.
Although software remains a modest percentage of consolidated sales, recurring maintenance and telemetry support improve customer retention and cushion hardware gross margin volatility.
| 마진 |
|---|
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $23.0B | 10.2x | 0.6x | 10.4x | 21.5% | — |
| IONQ | IonQ, Inc. | $12.7B | 84.2x | 51.4x | -60.5% | -408.2% | |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | $28.1B | 9.9x | 0.5x | 7.4x | — | 5.4% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | $136.4B | 10.9x | 10.6x | 26.2x | 130.9% | 43.6% |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | $197.3B | 5.1x | 9.7x | 15.5x | 91.6% | 78.5% |
| Server Hardware Commoditization and Tier-1 OEM Convergence | negative | Standard server hardware architectures face margin pressure as mature OEMs like HPQ (operating margin 5.40%) expand thermal management portfolios, threatening specialized cooling premiums. |
| Geographic Datacenter Localization and Sovereign AI Infrastructure | positive | International demand in Asia ($6,063,327,000 in FY2026) and Europe ($2,674,494,000) drives demand for regional datacenter assembly outside the domestic US market ($27,690,067,000). |
| Operating cash flow failing to turn positive and remaining negative through full-year FY2027 against the FY2026 deficit of -$6,809,886,000. |
| Pause further position accumulation and review debt liquidity covenants. |
| Operating Margin Durability | Operating margin declining for two consecutive quarters toward legacy server peer levels such as 5.40%. | Trim exposure to reflect loss of liquid cooling pricing power. |
| International Expansion Cadence | Asia revenue recording zero or negative year-over-year growth in FY2027 compared to $6,063,327,000 in FY2026. | Re-evaluate sovereign AI export exposure and international revenue growth projections. |
