선택적 제품 분석
허용하는 경우 개인정보 보호를 고려한 제한적 분석을 사용해 어떤 리서치 여정이 효과적인지 파악합니다. 광고 추적기나 세션 녹화는 사용하지 않습니다. 환경설정에서 이 선택을 변경할 수 있습니다. 자세한 내용은 개인정보 처리방침.
The primary opportunity is the normalization of the capital cycle and the operational leverage unlocked as distribution center construction completes.
Persistent line-haul freight inflation and diesel fuel price spikes exceeding retail budget expectations, combined with farm-and-ranch price matching.
Tractor Supply Company remains the preeminent rural lifestyle retailer in North America, but near-term margin compression from elevated freight rates, negative comparable store sales, and peak distribution center investments warrant a patient Hold rating at current market levels.
Tractor Supply operates an advantaged rural retail footprint that insulates it from conventional e-commerce disruption. Its extensive network of 2,463 stores provides crucial convenience for time-starved rural hobbyists and ranchers who depend on immediate availability of animal feed, livestock equipment, and farm hardware. Consumable, usable, and edible categories, alongside private label brands that reached 30.2% of sales in the first half of 2026, generate dependable recurring foot traffic. Additionally, the deliberate integration of pet health assets—comprising Petsense retail, Allivet online pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics—creates a differentiated ecosystem with proven customer stickiness.
Despite these structural advantages, the company is navigating a cyclical earnings trough in FY2026. Comparable store sales fell 1.5% in Q2 2026, pressured by discretionary spending fatigue and seasonal volatility, prompting management to lower full-year comp guidance to -1% to flat and withdraw its long-term framework. At the same time, unexpected spikes in line-haul freight and diesel fuel expenses are weighing on , resulting in adjusted guidance of 8.5% to 8.8%. also remain elevated due to distribution center construction ($435.71M in H1 2026), keeping the FY2026 at 45.0%. We view the risk-reward profile as balanced and recommend holding existing positions while awaiting comp sales inflection and normalization.
Operating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states creates an unmatched physical network that dominates exurban and rural retail, insulating the business from pure-play digital competitors.
Capital reinvestment is modeled to step down from 45.0% of NOPAT in FY2026 to 28.0% in FY2030 as distribution facility construction completes, unlocking strong free cash flow expansion to $958.94M.
The integration of Petsense, Allivet online pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics provides a sticky, recurring service layer where >40% of fresh pet buyers are new or reactivated.
Tractor Supply is rated Hold. The business possesses exceptional structural moats, but near-term earnings growth is constrained by line-haul freight inflation, negative comparable store sales, and elevated distribution investments. Investors should maintain current positions, capture recurring dividends, and defer adding fresh capital until comparable sales turn positive and the reinvestment rate normalizes.
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, operating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states and 209 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores in 23 states as of June 27, 2026. The company specializes in meeting the daily needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, suburban homeowners, gardeners, and pet owners. Its merchandise assortment is heavily anchored by consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) products, including livestock and pet feed, animal health solutions, seasonal hardware, lawn and garden supplies, and rural workwear.
In addition to its core retail locations, Tractor Supply has expanded its companion animal ecosystem through Petsense specialty stores, Allivet online pet pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics, providing an integrated suite of pet food, wellness, and preventative medical care across rural America.
In an acute downside scenario where rural consumer demand deteriorates alongside entrenched supply chain cost inflation, Tractor Supply would experience compounding headwinds. If comparable store sales contract by 2.0% to 3.0% across FY2026 and FY2027 while freight expenses and fuel prices stay at peak levels, fixed store occupancy and distribution overhead would deleverage sharply. Under this severe stress, operating margin would breach the 7.0% barrier. With committed capital expenditures for new distribution centers already underway ($435.71M invested in H1 2026), free cash flow generation would compress toward $250M-$300M, testing dividend coverage and necessitating the total cessation of share repurchases ($255.64M deployed in H1 2026). Additionally, terminal valuation multiples would contract toward mature retail peer levels of 12.0x-13.0x, causing multi-year price stagnation.
Under the Bear scenario, persistent weakness among lower-income rural households and discretionary spending fatigue continue to suppress comparable transaction counts into FY2027. Elevated diesel fuel and freight expenses fail to subside, while competitive pressure from farm-and-ranch discounters forces Tractor Supply to maintain margin-dilutive price investments. Capital expenditures remain elevated for longer to complete delayed distribution facilities, curtailing free cash flow growth and muting shareholder capital returns.
In Q2 2026, GAAP operating income contracted 19.2% YoY to $467.12M with GAAP operating margin falling 272 bps YoY to 10.29%, while full-year FY2026 operating margin was guided down to 8.0%-8.3%. If persistent line-haul freight inflation coincides with aggressive price cuts to match farm-and-ranch discounters, operating margins could break below the 7.0% threshold, generating a modeled -32.5% fair value impairment.4
투자 논리를 약화시킬 수 있는 다섯 가지 변화입니다.
Indicates fundamental demand contraction among rural consumers and core foot-traffic deterioration beyond weather variations.
현재:-1.5% in Q2 2026
다음이면 경고Sustained comp sales contraction below -2.0% for two consecutive quarters
Reveals inability to offset line-haul freight inflation through distribution automation or vendor terms, sparking severe earnings impairment.
Tractor Supply possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its dominant physical presence across rural America and an optimized supply chain built specifically for heavy, bulky lifestyle goods. With 2,463 Tractor Supply locations in 49 states as of June 27, 2026, the company's real estate footprint is situated predominantly in outlying rural and exurban markets where mass merchants and digital retailers cannot justify large-scale capital deployment. This geographic insulation provides substantial pricing defensibility and creates an indispensable community hub for hobby farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners.
The defensibility of the retail model is reinforced by Tractor Supply's proprietary merchandise mix and private brand penetration. In Q2 2026, owned brands and exclusive product categories generated 29.0% of net sales, rising to 30.2% across the first half of the year. These categories, paired with needs-based consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) products, foster recurring transaction demand. Furthermore, the company's expansion into pet health through Allivet and VIP Petcare mobile clinics establishes an ecosystem of veterinary wellness that deepens customer lifetime loyalty and drives predictable shopping frequency.
In FY2025, Tractor Supply produced $1,467.39M in operating income on invested capital of $4,346.29M. Assuming an effective tax rate of 22.13%, after-tax return on invested capital was approximately 26.3%, substantially outperforming the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. Even during the FY2026 operational trough with operating margins projected at 8.65%, ROIC is modeled to exceed 20%, demonstrating substantial economic profit generation above the cost of capital.156
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($34.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $588.1M after modeled reinvestment of $481.2M, with terminal value at 84.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case reflects our modal projection where FY2026 marks the operational trough for Tractor Supply. Comparable store sales stabilize near guided levels in FY2026 before re-accelerating in FY2027 and beyond. Heavy distribution center expenditures peak in FY2026 before tapering toward steady-state levels by FY2030, unlocking substantial free cash flow expansion. This path supports our central Fair value estimate of $34.55 per share.
A decisive beat driven by comparable transaction count inflection and freight stabilization would validate that the FY2026 earnings trough has completed ahead of schedule, confirming multi-year earnings re-acceleration.
Performance tracking within updated management guidance confirms that FY2026 represents a transient cyclical trough rather than structural impairment, supporting the central intrinsic valuation.
A miss below updated guidance would signify that rural consumer distress and freight cost headwinds are worsening, eroding the margin trajectory and delaying capital cycle normalization.
Tractor Supply's reported earnings quality reflects significant non-GAAP adjustments in recent periods. In Q2 2026, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.69 differed from adjusted diluted EPS of $0.81 due to $75.3M in pre-tax impairment and acquisition charges, which included $62.75M in goodwill, intangible, and long-lived asset impairment for Petsense, $5.93M in inventory write-downs for 75 planned store closures, and $9.5M in VIP Petcare acquisition costs. Operating cash flows remain robust, generating $653.14M in H1 2026, though lower than $1,002.58M in H1 2025 due to working capital expansion in inventories ($429.66M outflow). Accounting policies remain conservative, with clean inventory valuation and standard depreciation schedules ($257.45M D&A in H1 2026).
Sell-side consensus estimate revisions have drifted modestly downward following the Q2 2026 financial report and the subsequent withdrawal of the December 2024 Investor Day long-term framework. Full-year FY2026 consensus EPS estimates eased from $1.87 on October 7 to $1.86 on October 21, while FY2027 consensus EPS adjusted downward from $2.04 to $2.04. Similarly, FY2026 consensus revenue softened from $15.95B to $15.95B. This downward momentum reflects analyst modeling of persistent freight inflation and muted comp store sales through the remainder of FY2026.
Primary gauge of rural consumer health, foot traffic stability, and market share retention against discounters.
Operating cash flow generation generated $1,635.26M in FY2025 and $653.14M in H1 2026. Free cash flow reached $740.49M in FY2025 after accounting for $894.77M in capital expenditures. In FY2026, free cash flow to firm is modeled at $588.12M, constrained by an elevated 45.0% net reinvestment rate ($481.19M reinvestment). However, as distribution center construction tapers and working capital stabilizes, FCFF is projected to expand steadily: $683.40M in FY2027, $786.78M in FY2028, $895.88M in FY2029, and $958.94M in FY2030.6
Tractor Supply executes a balanced capital allocation strategy prioritizing internal growth, regular dividend increases, and programmatic share repurchases. In H1 2026, reached $435.71M, directed primarily toward new store openings (68 new TSCO stores opened in H1 2026) and regional distribution center infrastructure. The company returned $507.67M to shareholders in H1 2026, consisting of $252.02M in cash dividends ($0.24 declared per share quarterly) and $255.64M in share buybacks at an average price of $40.86 per share. In August 2026, TSCO strengthened its balance sheet by issuing $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing credit facility borrowings. remains manageable, supported by $653.14M in H1 2026 .
Tractor Supply's return on invested capital has moderated from peak pandemic highs (operating margins of 10.26% in FY2021 and 10.16% in FY2023 down to 9.45% in FY2025 and 8.65% modeled in FY2026). This softening reflects cyclical line-haul freight inflation, tariff absorption, and substantial capital deployment into new distribution center facilities ($894.77M capex in FY2025). As these investments mature and the reinvestment rate steps down from 45% to 28%, ROIC is projected to stabilize and rebound toward steady-state levels.
Despite the near-term margin trough, after-tax ROIC remains exceptionally strong at over 20%, maintaining a wide economic profit spread of more than 13 percentage points above the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. This spread underscores the durability of the company's underlying .
| 매출 | US$15,524,046,000 |
|---|---|
| 매출원가 | US$9,869,538,000 |
| 매출총이익 | US$5,654,508,000 |
| 영업비용 | US$4,187,119,000 |
| 영업이익 | US$1,467,389,000 |
| 영업외 항목 및 세금 | -US$371,302,000 |
| 순이익 | US$1,096,087,000 |
| 총자산 | US$10,933,679,000 |
|---|---|
| 현금 | US$194,109,000 |
| 유동자산 | US$3,507,797,000 |
| 총부채 | US$8,352,386,000 |
| 유동부채 | US$2,614,449,000 |
| 주주자본 | US$2,581,293,000 |
| 순이익 | US$1,096,087,000 |
|---|---|
| 영업 현금 유입 | US$1,647,161,000 |
| 감가상각비 | US$494,011,000 |
| 주식 기반 보상 | US$57,063,000 |
| 영업 현금흐름 | US$1,635,259,000 |
| 영업 현금 유출 | US$11,902,000 |
| 사용 가능 현금 | US$1,886,750,000 |
| 기초 현금 | US$251,491,000 |
| 투자 현금 유출 | US$778,578,000 |
| 재무 현금 유출 | US$914,063,000 |
| 자사주 매입 | US$361,261,000 |
| 지급 배당금 | US$487,669,000 |
| 순부채 상환 | US$72,819,000 |
| 기말 현금 | US$194,109,000 |
| 투자 현금흐름 | -US$778,578,000 |
| 재무 현금흐름 | -US$914,063,000 |
2026-10-21 분석에 사용된 시점 재무 데이터입니다.
| 기간 | 매출 | EBITDA | 순이익 | 영업 현금흐름 | 잉여 현금흐름 | 자본적 지출 | 감가상각비 | 주식 기반 보상 | 자사주 매입 | 지급 배당금 | 순부채 발행 | 투자 현금흐름 | 재무 현금흐름 | 기초 현금 | 기말 현금 | 현금 및 투자자산 | 총부채 | 영업이익률 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC 스프레드 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$67.8억 | US$8.4억 | US$4.4억 | US$6.5억 | US$4.2억 | US$2.3억 | US$1.4억 | US$2355.4만 | US$3.3억 | US$1.2억 | — | -US$3.7억 | -US$2.9억 | — | US$5391.6만 | US$5391.6만 | US$0 | 10.2% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2017-12-30 | US$72.6억 | US$8.5억 | US$4.2억 | US$6.3억 | US$3.8억 | US$2.5억 | US$1.7억 | US$2920.2만 | US$3.7억 | US$1.3억 | — | -US$2.4억 | -US$3.4억 | US$5391.6만 | US$1.1억 | US$1.1억 | US$1.5억 | 9.5% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2018-12-29 | US$79.1억 | US$8.8억 | US$5.3억 | US$6.9억 | US$4.2억 | US$2.8억 | US$1.8억 | US$2892.1만 | US$3.5억 | US$1.5억 | — | -US$2.8억 | -US$4.4억 | US$1.1억 | US$8629.9만 | US$8890만 | US$1.5억 | 8.9% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2019-12-28 | US$83.5억 | US$9.4억 | US$5.6억 | US$8.1억 | US$5.9억 | US$2.2억 | US$2억 | US$3113.6만 | US$5.3억 | US$1.6억 | — | -US$2.1억 | -US$6억 | US$8629.9만 | US$8424.1만 | US$8479.9만 | US$1.5억 | 8.9% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2020-12-26 | US$106.2억 | US$12.1억 | US$7.5억 | US$13.9억 | US$11억 | US$2.9억 | US$2.2억 | US$3727.3만 | US$3.4억 | US$1.7억 | — | -US$2.9억 | US$1.6억 | US$8424.1만 | US$13.4억 | US$13.4억 | US$1.5억 | 9.4% | — | 4.9% | — |
| 2021-12-25 | US$127.3억 | US$15.8억 | US$10억 | US$11.4억 | US$5.1억 | US$6.3억 | US$2.7억 | US$4764.9만 | US$8억 | US$2.4억 | — | -US$6.3억 | -US$9.8억 | US$13.4억 | US$8.8억 | US$8.8억 | US$1.5억 | 10.3% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$142억 | US$17.8억 | US$10.9억 | US$13.6억 | US$5.8억 | US$7.7억 | US$3.4억 | US$5383.2만 | US$7억 | US$4.1억 | US$1.7억 | -US$10.9억 | -US$9.4억 | US$8.8억 | US$2억 | US$2억 | US$1.5억 | 10.1% | — | 7.7% | — |
| 2023-12-30 | US$145.6억 | US$18.7억 | US$11.1억 | US$13.3억 | US$5.8억 | US$7.5억 | US$3.9억 | US$5701.5만 | US$5.9억 | US$4.5억 | US$5.7억 | -US$6.5억 | -US$4.9억 | US$2억 | US$4억 | US$4억 | US$1.5억 | 10.2% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2024-12-28 | US$148.8억 | US$19.1억 | US$11억 | US$14.2억 | US$6.4억 | US$7.8억 | US$4.5억 | US$4836.7만 | US$5.6억 | US$4.7억 | US$9521.3만 | -US$6.4억 | -US$9.2억 | US$4억 | US$2.5억 | US$2.5억 | US$1.5억 | 9.9% | — | 8.3% | — |
| 2025-12-27 | US$155.2억 | US$19.6억 | US$11억 | US$16.4억 | US$7.4억 | US$8.9억 | US$4.9억 | US$5706.3만 | US$3.6억 | US$4.9억 | -US$7281.9만 | -US$7.8억 | -US$9.1억 | US$2.5억 | US$1.9억 | US$1.9억 | US$1.5억 | 9.5% | — | 7.2% | — |
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades at 14.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.1x compares with a peer median of 13.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Best Buy Co. Inc., Ulta Beauty Inc., Domino's Pizza Inc. and Packaging Corporation of America, as of 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21.
Industry benchmark data indicates a retail capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.016 (1.6%) and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.65. In contrast, Tractor Supply deployed $894.77M in FY2025 capex on $15.52B in revenue (5.76% of revenue) and an additional $435.71M in H1 2026, reflecting an aggressive multi-year distribution center expansion program. Because broader industry capacity and supplier lead-time evidence remain unavailable, our sector cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
In an industry upcycle, real rural wage growth, demographic exurban migration, and resilient companion animal spending drive robust comp transaction growth. Distribution automation reduces cost-to-serve, while private label expansion enhances product gross margins above 37.5%, enabling industry operating margins to expand toward 10.0%.
In an extended industry downturn, persistent inflation in living costs reduces discretionary home, garden, and recreational hardware purchases among rural consumers. Comp sales contract further, forcing promotional discounting against regional farm-and-ranch discounters and compressing industry operating margins below historical mid-cycle averages.
Tractor Supply occupies the preeminent leadership position within the niche rural lifestyle retail sector. With 2,463 branded stores in 49 states, its scale dwarfs regional farm-and-ranch competitors. The company maintains an everyday low pricing strategy reinforced by exclusive brands, while its localized inventory mix of livestock feed, farm hardware, and pet nutrition establishes high customer retention across economic cycles.
A moderate conviction stance reflects the tension between Tractor Supply's outstanding long-term moat and its near-term earnings headwinds. The company's durable market leadership, 26% historical ROIC, and growing pet ecosystem justify a core allocation, but recent comp store declines (-1.5% in Q2 2026) and freight headwinds warrant limiting portfolio exposure to 2-3% pending operational turnaround.
Position risk is managed by maintaining strict weighting limits (2-3% of portfolio equity) and tracking debt covenant compliance. In August 2026, Tractor Supply issued $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing short-term credit facility obligations, extending debt maturities and preserving liquidity. With cash and cash equivalents of $231.59M at the end of Q2 2026 and operating cash flow of $653.14M generated in H1 2026, the balance sheet maintains robust flexibility to support ongoing dividend payments ($0.24 quarterly) through the FY2026 capital cycle peak.
The dividend ($0.24 quarterly / $0.48 declared in H1 2026) is well protected by $653.14M in H1 2026 operating cash flow, but the narrow 5.0% upside to central fair value ($34.55) does not warrant increasing capital commitments.
At 14.45x forward earnings, TSCO trades at a modest discount to its 15.0x terminal multiple, but lacks an immediate catalyst following the withdrawal of the Investor Day multi-year framework. A wider margin of safety is needed before adding.2
Negative comp store sales (-1.5% in Q2 2026) and ongoing freight cost headwinds create risk of further estimate revisions through Q3 and Q4 2026, limiting near-term momentum.
We maintain a Hold recommendation on Tractor Supply Company with Fair value of $34.55. At $32.91, the implied return to Fair value is 5.0%. While the company's wide economic moat and rural retail dominance remain intact, near-term operational headwinds justify maintaining existing equity positions rather than initiating new exposure.
Earnings growth is temporarily suppressed by line-haul freight inflation, negative comparable store sales (-1.5% in Q2 2026), and peak capital reinvestment for distribution center projects. Long-term investors should hold existing shares to collect recurring dividends and await clearer evidence of comp sales stabilization and free cash flow acceleration.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Q2 2026 comparable store sales fell 1.5% with transaction count down 1.7%, and full-year FY2026 comp guidance was reduced to -1% to flat. If new store cannibalization increases across saturated territories and rural discretionary demand stays subdued, revenue growth would fail to reach the modeled 3.5%-4.5% path, leading to an estimated -24.8% fair value reduction.4
Tractor Supply trades at 14.45x forward earnings against a modeled 15.0x exit multiple. However, broad retail peers like Best Buy trade at 13.00x forward P/E. Following the withdrawal of the Investor Day multi-year targets, continued low-single-digit compounding would cause terminal multiple compression of 20% toward ~12.0x, driving an estimated -20.0% fair value impact.23
현재:8.65% modeled FY2026; FY2026 GAAP guidance 8.0%-8.3%
다음이면 경고Full-year GAAP operating margin dropping below 7.0%
Highlights that capital spending in distribution centers is failing to generate productivity, depressing cash conversion.
현재:45.0% in FY2026
다음이면 경고Reinvestment rate remaining above 40.0% through FY2028 without top-line acceleration
Warns of inventory overhang in seasonal or discretionary goods requiring margin-dilutive clearance markdowns.
현재:$1,231.0K per store (+6.6% YoY) in Q2 2026; turns at 3.33x
다음이면 경고Inventory growth outpacing sales growth by >800 bps or turns dropping below 3.0x
Indicates persistent integration friction across acquired pet platforms, diluting expected omnichannel loyalty and pharmacy attachment.
현재:$65.8M impairment and 75 planned closures in Q2 2026
다음이면 경고Additional restructuring charges exceeding $50M or active pet client retention declining
| medium |
| 6-18 months |
| Opening additional regional distribution centers to decrease transit stem-miles, alongside supply chain landed-cost initiatives. |
| Petsense operational drag and store rationalization costs. | low | 6-12 months | Executing a restructuring plan to close ~75 underperforming Petsense stores, incurring $65.8M in Q2 2026 charges to sharpen capital allocation on high-return veterinary and digital services. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$7.22 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$30.76 from the long-term value, totaling US$37.98.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (US$6.09) plus discounted terminal value (US$32.66) minus signed per current share (-US$0.08) equals the US$38.84 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
In the Bull case, rural consumer spending rebounds sharply from the recent soft patch, and comparable store sales return to solid positive growth. Distribution center additions deliver landed-cost efficiencies faster than anticipated, driving operating margins back toward historical peak levels. Combined with steady annual net share count reductions and rapid integration of Allivet and VIP Petcare, free cash flow generation accelerates well above base expectations, driving valuation toward Potential value of $44.45.
Determines whether line-haul freight inflation is cresting and whether landed-cost efficiencies are restoring operating profitability.
The catalyst for free cash flow inflection; confirms capital expenditure step-down from peak project cycles toward maintenance intensity.
Validates the multi-year thesis that comprehensive animal health drives high recurring traffic and cross-selling synergies.
Identifies whether seasonal inventory carryover is cleared without destructive gross margin markdowns.4
| $17.35B |
| $18.05B |
| $18.68B |
| Revenue growth | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Operating income | $1.38B | $1.47B | $1.56B | $1.65B | $1.72B |
| Tax rate | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| NOPAT | $1.07B | $1.14B | $1.21B | $1.28B | $1.33B |
| Reinvestment | $481.19M | $455.60M | $423.65M | $383.95M | $372.92M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 45.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | 30.0% | 28.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $588.12M | $683.40M | $786.78M | $895.88M | $958.94M |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Operating margin fell from 10.26% in FY2021 and 9.45% in FY2025 to a guided adjusted rate of 8.5%-8.8% in FY2026 (GAAP 8.0%-8.3%).
FY2026 represents the operational margin trough of the current cycle, with operating margins modeled to stabilize at 8.65% before recovering gradually toward 9.20% by FY2030.
Reinvestment rate steps down from 45.0% in FY2026 to 40.0% in FY2027, 35.0% in FY2028, and 28.0% by FY2030.
Free cash flow conversion will accelerate dramatically from FY2027 onward, expanding FCFF from $588.12M to $958.94M over five years.
In H1 2026, the company repurchased shares for $255.64M, supporting a modeled 1.0% to 1.2% annual net share count reduction.
Diluted shares outstanding are projected to decline from 526.86M in FY2026 to 505.07M by FY2030, enhancing EPS growth above net income expansion.
| 마진 |
|---|
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | $17.1B | 14.5x | 1.1x | 12.1x | 39.5% | — |
| BBY | Best Buy Co. Inc. | $19.7B | 13.0x | 0.5x | 8.2x | 43.1% | 3.9% |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty Inc. | $25.8B | 18.8x | 2.0x | 14.5x | 46.1% | 12.5% |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza Inc. | $10.4B | 15.3x | 2.1x | 14.7x | — | 20.4% |
| PKG | Packaging Corporation of America | $21.3B | 17.7x | 2.2x | 12.5x | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| negative |
| Persistent volatility in domestic line-haul trucking rates, driver shortages, and elevated diesel fuel costs exert ongoing pressure on retail gross margins for bulky physical freight. |
| Reduce terminal valuation multiple and re-evaluate supply chain efficiency assumptions. |
| Capital Expenditure Run-Rate | Full-year capex significantly exceeding budgeted expectations without accompanying distribution center milestones | Reduce forward free cash flow estimates and delay modeled dividend growth. |
| Inventory Turnover Rate | Annualized inventory turns falling below 3.10x (vs 3.33x in Q2 2026) | Factor in gross margin markdown risk and suspend any fresh accumulation. |
