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ConocoPhillips operates as a premier, large-scale cyclical E&P producer with a highly competitive low-cost asset base. Following peak conditions in 2022, near-term estimates reflect cyclical normalization; however, the company generates robust free cash flow capable of sustaining meaningful shareholder distributions even during mid-cycle environments. Fair value range: low $127, high $218, with mid-point at $169.
Stock analysis

COP fair value $127–$218

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-09Volgende update: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Koers
$113.87
▲ +54.72 (+48.05%)
Fair value
$169
$127–$218
Beoordeling
Sterk kopen
confidence 88/100
Opwaarts potentieel
+48.0%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$143.30
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$138.7B
P/E fwd 13.1
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Strong cash floor mitigates cyclical downside.
  • Undervalued relative to long-term free cash flow potential.
  • Disciplined capital return program provides a robust yield.
Fair value
$169
Margin of safety
+32.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$113.87Price
Low $126.83
Mid $168.59
High $218.44

ConocoPhillips operates as a premier, large-scale cyclical E&P producer with a highly competitive low-cost asset base. Following peak conditions in 2022, near-term estimates reflect cyclical normalization; however, the company generates robust free cash flow capable of sustaining meaningful shareholder distributions even during mid-cycle environments.

  • Low-cost unconventional asset base in
    Low-cost unconventional asset base in Tier 1 basins.
  • Scale advantages driving operational efficiencies
    Scale advantages driving operational efficiencies and capital flexibility.
  • Cycle upside
    Structural underinvestment in conventional supply combined with resilient global demand creates prolonged elevated commodity prices.

§2 Berenscenario

Accelerating energy transition dynamics and macroeconomic headwinds depress long-term oil and gas prices. Elevated capital requirements to combat natural decline rates severely compress free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. and terminal valuation multiples, threatening the sustainability of shareholder returns.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Demand Destruction

· High

Permanent structural demand destruction driving long-term realized oil prices persistently below $50/bbl.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Capital Inflation

· Medium

Severe cost inflation on capital expenditures eroding free cash flow margins despite stable commodity prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Regulatory Impairment

· Low

Aggressive regulatory actions or carbon taxes materially impairing the economic viability of core assets.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
5+ Years
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Consecutive quarters of declining free cash flow conversion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned increases in capital expenditure guidance without corresponding production growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained widening of benchmark differentials impacting realized pricing.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Reduction or suspension of the variable dividend component or share buyback program.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Material deterioration in the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) trend below 10%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Omzet$45.83B$78.49B$56.14B$54.75B$58.94B+6.5%
Brutowinst$14.77B$30.01B$18.20B$16.38B$14.79B+0.0%
Bedrijfsresultaat$12.07B$25.46B$15.03B$12.78B$11.34B-1.5%
Nettowinst$8.08B$18.68B$10.96B$9.25B$7.99B-0.3%
WPA (verwaterd)—$14.57$9.06$7.81$6.35-18.7%
EBITDA$21.09B$37.13B$25.78B$24.43B$25.57B+4.9%
R&D——————
VAA$719.0M$623.0M$705.0M$1.16B$893.0M+5.6%

Kwaliteitsscores

OCF / Nettowinst
2.48×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Fail
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
12.5%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

COP reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for COP (COP) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

COP — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COP looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $114 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $169 (range $127–$218), which implies roughly 48.0% upside to the midpoint.

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