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BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $69.6, high $123, with mid-point at $98.4.
Stock analysis

BK fair value $70–$123

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-08Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Cena
$130.85
▼ -32.46 (-24.81%)
Wartość godziwa
$98
$70–$123
Rekomendacja
Redukuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-24.8%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$83.63
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$89.8B
P/E fwd 13.6
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $98 with high case $123.
  • Implied downside of 24.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$98
Margin of safety
-33.0%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$130.85Price
Low $69.61
Mid $98.39
High $123.17

BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for institutional
    High switching costs for institutional clients
  • Massive scale in custody and
    Massive scale in custody and administration
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks relies on inappropriate industrial-style DCF models.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A stress environment combining a 20% equity market drawdown and 200 bps of rate cuts would simultaneously hit fee revenues and net interest incomeNet Interest IncomeNet Interest Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., severely testing fixed-cost leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA..

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe Market Correction

· Medium

A prolonged global market downturn drastically reduces Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A), directly compressing fee-based revenue streams below fixed operating costs.

FV impact
-15% to -20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Accelerated Rate Cuts

· High

Central banks aggressively cut interest rates faster than expected, severely compressing net interest margins on uninvested cash balances.

FV impact
-10% to -15%
Trigger
6-12 months

Regulatory Capital Hike

· Medium

G-SIB regulatory framework adjustments force significant increases in required equity capital, depressing ROE and residual income valuations.

FV impact
-20% to -25%
Trigger
18-36 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Consecutive quarters of declining AUC/A balancesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of net interest margin below historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Elevated technology and compliance spend exceeding revenue growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major institutional custody mandates to competitorsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions indicating impending capital surcharge increasesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Okres2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$15.63B$16.19B$17.34B$18.26B$19.76B+6.0%
Zysk brutto——————
Zysk operacyjny——————
Zysk netto$3.76B$2.56B$3.30B$4.53B$5.55B+10.2%
EPS (rozwodniony)—$2.90$4.00$5.80$7.40+26.4%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$6.34B$6.80B$7.10B$6.89B$6.95B+2.3%

Wyniki jakości

OCF / Zysk netto
1.21×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
—
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

BK income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of BK (BK) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

BK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $131 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $98.4 (range $69.6–$123), which implies roughly 24.8% downside to the midpoint.

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