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Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples. Fair value range: low $115, high $164, with mid-point at $139.
Stock analysis

ABNB fair value $115–$164

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-04-27Следующее обновление: 2026-07-27Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$141.06
▲ +3.94 (+2.79%)
Справедливая стоимость
$139
$115–$164
Рекомендация
Держать
confidence 80/100
Потенциал роста
+2.8%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$117.81
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
84.57B
P/E fwd 24.5
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $139 with high case $164.
  • Implied upside of 2.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 8/10 · confidence 80/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$139
Margin of safety
-1.8%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
8/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$141.06Price
Low $115.35
Mid $138.6
High $163.95

Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples.

  • Unrivaled Network Effects
    A self-reinforcing loop of hosts and guests creates insurmountable barriers for sub-scale competitors.
  • Asset-Light Cash Generation
    Operating margins near 20% and minimal capex drive >$4B in annual free cash flow, fueling buybacks.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Regulatory crackdowns on short-term rentals in major cities restrict supply, while macro-economic softness compresses consumer travel budgets, driving multiple compression.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Global Regulatory Squeeze

15%· Low

Major metros ban or severely restrict STRs

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 mos
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Nights and Experiences Booked Growth8%<5%

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов

Статья202320242025
Выручка$9.92B$11.10B+11.9%$12.24B
Операционная прибыль$1.52B$2.55B$2.54B

Баллы качества

Accounting
Clean
Strong FCF conversion
Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

ABNB intrinsic value questions

  1. ABNB (ABNB)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
FAQ

ABNB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABNB trades close to fair value. The current price is $141 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $139 (range $115–$164), which implies roughly 2.8% upside to the midpoint.
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Same archetype: mature-compounder