Intuit Inc. (INTU)
NASDAQ: INTU · Real-Time Price · USD
$396
-10.45 (-2.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: INTU rated Buy
INTU is rated Buy at $396.31 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $486.21, implying +22.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$486 / share
$369 – $605
Upside to FV
+22.7%
from $396
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Market implied expectations (9.1% growth) sit below internal valuation cross-checks (14%).
Biggest risk
IRS Direct File Domination
Deduction of elevated SBC (10.4%) grounds the valuation in true economic reality.
Recommended action
Buy
INTU is rated Buy at $396.31 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $486.21, implying +22.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $110.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 20.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $15.4 | |
| Shares out | 276.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 15.0x | |
| Dividend | $4.80 (1.21%) | |
| Volume | 2,348,415 | |
| Beta | 1.03 | |
| Price target | $692 | +74.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Intuit Inc.INTU
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 20.1B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $15.4
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.0x
- Market cap
- $110.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-07-31 | 2023-07-31 | 2024-07-31 | 2025-07-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $12.73B | $14.37B | $16.29B | $18.83B | +14.0% |
| Gross profit | $10.32B | $11.23B | $12.82B | $14.98B | +13.2% |
| Operating income | $2.56B | $3.14B | $3.85B | $4.94B | +24.5% |
| Net income | $2.07B | $2.38B | $2.96B | $3.87B | +23.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.28 | $8.42 | $10.43 | $13.67 | +23.4% |
| EBITDA | $3.37B | $4.04B | $4.58B | $5.89B | +20.5% |
| R&D | $2.35B | $2.54B | $2.75B | $2.93B | +7.7% |
| SG&A | $5.00B | $5.06B | $5.73B | $6.64B | +9.9% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $369
- Fair value (mid)
- $486
- Fair value (high)
- $605
- Current price
- $396
- Upside to mid
- +22.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $473 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $434 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $534 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $569 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $426 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $489 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $84.36 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$692
+74.7%
In the news
Latest news · INTU
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $110.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.0x
- P/S
- 5.4x
- P/B
- 5.8x
- PEG
- 1.07
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 80.9%
- Operating margin
- 27.1%
- ROE
- 23.5%
- ROA
- 10.3%
- ROIC
- 19.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.36
- Current ratio
- 1.32
- Quick ratio
- 0.48
Trading
- Beta
- 1.03
- Volume
- 2,348,415
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +22.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$605.35
+52.7% from spot
AI-driven product enhancements drive rapid ARPU expansion across the QuickBooks and Mailchimp installed bases. Credit Karma rebounds strongly with a more favorable macroeconomic environment, re-accelerating overall revenue to mid-teens.
- Revenue CAGR accelerates beyond 13%.
- Operating margins expand toward 35%.
- Terminal multiple holds above 25x.
Base60%
Price target
$486.21
+22.7% from spot
Intuit maintains dominance in SMB and consumer tax. Despite mature top-line rates, high switching costs underpin sustained double-digit growth. Operating margins stabilize at 28%, delivering consistent free cash flow generation.
- Revenue grows at 12% decelerating to mid-single digits.
- Operating margins remain flat at 28%.
- Terminal multiple modeled at a conservative 20x.
Bear20%
Price target
$369.17
-6.8% from spot
The IRS Direct File initiative scales aggressively, capturing material TurboTax share. SMB churn rises amid macroeconomic stress, stalling Mailchimp synergies and pressuring core margins as fixed costs deleverage.
- Revenue growth stalls to low single digits.
- Operating margins compress below 25%.
- Terminal multiple contracts to 15x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $486.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $473 | +19.3% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $434 | +9.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $534 | +34.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $569 | +43.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $426 | +7.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $489 | +23.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $84.4 | -78.7% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $486 | +22.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $577 | $637 | $710 | $802 | $851 |
| 8.4% | $486 | $528 | $577 | $637 | $710 |
| 9.4% | $420 | $451 | $486 | $528 | $577 |
| 10.4% | $370 | $393 | $420 | $451 | $486 |
| 11.4% | $330 | $349 | $370 | $393 | $420 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.1
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding given high visibility and wide moat. Size up to 5% active weight.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$396
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim if valuation multiple exceeds 30x forward earnings or if structural impairment emerges from government tax initiatives.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE23.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC19
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All INTU indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on INTU
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this INTU report
What is the current INTU stock rating?
Intuit Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full INTU analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/INTU/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for INTU?
The latest report frames INTU around $369 to $605. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the INTU page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyINTU · Fair value $486+22.7% · Confidence 88/100