PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
NASDAQ: PEP · Real-Time Price · USD
$155
-1.67 (-1.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PEP rated Buy
PEP is rated Buy at $154.62 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $174.41, implying +12.80% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$174 / share
$143 – $206
Upside to FV
+12.8%
from $155
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Valuation synthesis intentionally anchors heavily on Forward Earnings to mitigate terminal value dominance.
Biggest risk
GLP-1 Widespread Adoption
Multiple cross-checks confirm the prolonged terminal value driven by deep distribution moats.
Recommended action
Buy
PEP is rated Buy at $154.62 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $174.41, implying +12.80% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $211.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 95.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 8.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $6.37 | |
| Shares out | 1.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 16.9x | |
| Dividend | $5.69 (3.68%) | |
| Volume | 4,934,438 | |
| Beta | 0.39 | |
| Price target | $167 | +7.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
PepsiCo, Inc.PEP
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 95.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 8.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $6.37
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.9x
- Market cap
- $211.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $86.39B | $91.47B | $91.85B | $93.93B | +2.8% |
| Gross profit | $45.82B | $49.59B | $50.11B | $50.86B | +3.5% |
| Operating income | $11.36B | $12.91B | $12.92B | $13.49B | +5.9% |
| Net income | $8.91B | $9.07B | $9.58B | $8.24B | -2.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.42 | $6.56 | $6.95 | $6.00 | -2.2% |
| EBITDA | $14.92B | $15.75B | $16.68B | $15.54B | +1.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $34.46B | $36.68B | $37.19B | $37.37B | +2.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $143
- Fair value (mid)
- $174
- Fair value (high)
- $206
- Current price
- $155
- Upside to mid
- +12.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $138 | 40% |
| FCFF DCF | $204 | 20% |
| Ddm | $185 | 20% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $208 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $343 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $222 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $26.91 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$167
+7.9%
In the news
Latest news · PEP
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $211.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.9x
- P/S
- 2.2x
- P/B
- 9.9x
- PEG
- 2.42
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 54.4%
- Operating margin
- 16.2%
- ROE
- 43.9%
- ROA
- 9.1%
- ROIC
- 19.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.45
- Current ratio
- 0.90
- Quick ratio
- 0.67
Trading
- Beta
- 0.39
- Volume
- 4,934,438
- Dividend yield
- 3.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +12.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$206.45
+33.5% from spot
Successful penetration of international snack markets and sustained pricing power driven by brand loyalty drive margin expansion, resulting in steady mid-single-digit top-line growth and upper-single-digit EPS compounding.
- Successful penetration of international snack markets and sustained pricing power.
- Margin expansion resulting in steady mid-single-digit top-line growth.
- Upper-single-digit EPS compounding without significant volume destruction.
Base60%
Price target
$174.41
+12.8% from spot
PepsiCo maintains its deep distribution moats and strong brand pricing power. While volume growth is stagnant in developed markets, immense pricing power and deep distribution moats provide highly predictable cash flows to sustain consistent capital returns.
- Stable cash flows fitting perfectly within mature dividend archetype.
- Terminal growth rate of 2.5% aligns with GDP and inflation.
- Forward multiple remains around 17x, balancing stability and slow growth.
Bear20%
Price target
$142.66
-7.7% from spot
Consumer fatigue over successive price increases, generic store-brand substitution, and potential volume headwinds from GLP-1 weight-loss drug adoption compress operating margins and stunt growth, driving valuation to the downside.
- Consumer fatigue over successive price increases and generic substitution.
- Potential volume headwinds from GLP-1 weight-loss drug adoption.
- Compression of operating margins as pricing power finally wanes.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $174.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 40% | $138 | -10.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $204 | +31.6% | |
| Ddm | 20% | $185 | +19.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $208 | +34.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $343 | +122.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $222 | +43.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $26.9 | -82.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $174 | +12.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | $277 | $324 | $324 | $324 | $324 |
| 4.5% | $185 | $222 | $277 | $324 | $324 |
| 5.5% | $139 | $159 | $185 | $222 | $277 |
| 6.5% | $111 | $124 | $139 | $159 | $185 |
| 7.5% | $102 | $102 | $111 | $124 | $139 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet1.5
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment3.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding given mature dividend status, low volatility, and highly predictable cash flows. Appropriate for significant weighting in conservative income strategies.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$155
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions if shares consistently trade above the $206 high-end fair value or if structural volume declines suggest a permanent impairment of the distribution and brand moat.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E16.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE43.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC19.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PEP indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PEP
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PEP report
What is the current PEP stock rating?
PepsiCo, Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PEP analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PEP/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PEP?
The latest report frames PEP around $143 to $206. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PEP page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyPEP · Fair value $174+12.8% · Confidence 88/100