Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples. Fair value range: low $115, high $164, with mid-point at $139.
Stock analysis

ABNB fair value $115–$164

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-04-27Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-07-27Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Giá
$141.06
▲ +3.94 (+2.79%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$139
$115–$164
Khuyến nghị
Giữ
confidence 80/100
Tiềm năng tăng
+2.8%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$117.81
MoS level · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
84.57B
P/E fwd 24.5
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Composite fair value $139 with high case $164.
  • Implied upside of 2.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 8/10 · confidence 80/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$139
Margin of safety
-1.8%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
8/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$141.06Price
Low $115.35
Mid $138.6
High $163.95

Airbnb remains the dominant global platform for alternative accommodations, boasting exceptional unit economics and a durable wide moat. However, normalizing travel demand and regulatory pressures limit near-term upside at current multiples.

  • Unrivaled Network Effects
    A self-reinforcing loop of hosts and guests creates insurmountable barriers for sub-scale competitors.
  • Asset-Light Cash Generation
    Operating margins near 20% and minimal capex drive >$4B in annual free cash flow, fueling buybacks.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

Regulatory crackdowns on short-term rentals in major cities restrict supply, while macro-economic softness compresses consumer travel budgets, driving multiple compression.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

Global Regulatory Squeeze

15%· Low

Major metros ban or severely restrict STRs

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 mos
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Nights and Experiences Booked Growth8%<5%

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất

Khoản mục202320242025
Doanh thu$9.92B$11.10B+11.9%$12.24B
Lợi nhuận hoạt động$1.52B$2.55B$2.54B

Điểm chất lượng

Accounting
Clean
Strong FCF conversion
Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Báo cáo đầy đủ cho mọi mã được phủ
Lưu trữ khuyến nghị 24 tháng
Bản tin watchlist + cảnh báo thay đổi khuyến nghị
Xuất PDF + DOCX bằng mọi ngôn ngữ
Bắt đầu dùng thử miễn phí
Hủy bất kỳ lúc nào.
REVENUE FAQ

ABNB revenue questions

  1. ABNB (ABNB)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.
FAQ

ABNB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABNB trades close to fair value. The current price is $141 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $139 (range $115–$164), which implies roughly 2.8% upside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of ABNB also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder