Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Stock analysis

TDG fair value $938–$1,542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-05-13Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Giá
$1191.19
▲ +47.59 (+4.00%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$1239
$938–$1542
Khuyến nghị
Giữ
confidence 86/100
Tiềm năng tăng
+4.0%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$1052.96
MoS level · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
$66.6B
P/E fwd 25.5
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Composite fair value $1,239 with high case $1,542.
  • Implied upside of 4.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2

TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
    Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
  • Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
    Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
  • Cycle upside
    High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

Regulatory Pricing Crackdown

15%· Low

DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction dragging valuation down to the $938 downside scenario.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt

20%· Medium

Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.

FV impact
FCF squeeze pushes the Ke premium up, threatening a valuation drop below $938.
Trigger
1-2 Years

M&A Pipeline Exhaustion

15%· Low

Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.

FV impact
Long-term growth expectations fade, pulling the EV multiple down and reverting valuation toward trailing averages.
Trigger
3-5 Years
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Year-over-year operating margin compression exceeding 200 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex exceeding 3% of revenues structurally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt servicing costs exceeding 40% of operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Khoản mụcT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Kỳ2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Doanh thu$5.43B$6.59B$7.94B$8.83B+17.6%
Lợi nhuận gộp$3.10B$3.84B$4.67B$5.31B+19.7%
Lợi nhuận hoạt động$2.22B$2.92B$3.58B$4.19B+23.7%
Lợi nhuận ròng$866.0M$1.30B$1.71B$2.07B+33.8%
EPS (pha loãng)$13.40$22.03$25.62$32.08+33.8%
EBITDA$2.46B$3.15B$3.81B$4.57B+23.0%
R&D—————
SG&A$748.0M$780.0M$934.0M$921.0M+7.2%

Điểm chất lượng

OCF / Lợi nhuận ròng
0.98×
>1 cho thấy chất lượng lợi nhuận cao
Cổng chất lượng kế toán
Fail
Cổng điều chỉnh theo ngành
ROIC
16.3%
Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn đầu tư
Phần 3

Numbers analysis

Dòng tiền

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Phân bổ vốn

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Báo cáo đầy đủ cho mọi mã được phủ
Lưu trữ khuyến nghị 24 tháng
Bản tin watchlist + cảnh báo thay đổi khuyến nghị
Xuất PDF + DOCX bằng mọi ngôn ngữ
Bắt đầu dùng thử miễn phí
Hủy bất kỳ lúc nào.
MARGINS FAQ

TDG margins questions

  1. TDG (TDG)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

TDG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of TDG also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder