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WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $66.0, high $125, with mid-point at $95.3.
Stock analysis

WDAY fair value $66–$125

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Đã phân tích: 2026-05-10Cập nhật tiếp theo: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Giá
$127.83
▼ -32.56 (-25.47%)
Giá trị hợp lý
$95
$66–$125
Khuyến nghị
Bán
confidence 87/100
Tiềm năng tăng
-25.5%
upside to fair value
Biên an toàn
$80.98
MoS level · 15%
Vốn hóa thị trường
$31.9B
P/E fwd 10.3
Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI
Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hành

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $125.
  • Implied downside of 25.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-34.2%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$127.83Price
Low $65.95
Mid $95.27
High $124.7

WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Extremely high switching costs for
    Extremely high switching costs for enterprise ERP and HCM systems.
  • Deeply embedded core workflow integrations
    Deeply embedded core workflow integrations across corporate HR.
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cực

Under severe macroeconomic contraction, enterprise IT budgets freeze. While Workday's subscription model cushions the immediate revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. blow, new logo acquisition stalls entirely. Margin expansion collapses as sales efficiency drops, keeping GAAP profitability heavily depressed by sticky SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

HCM Market Saturation

· High

Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.

FV impact
-35% ($82/share)
Trigger
12-24 months

Financials Cross-sell Stagnation

· Medium

Failure to displace deeply entrenched Oracle and SAP cloud financials deployments stunts TAM expansion.

FV impact
-25% ($95/share)
Trigger
24-36 months

SBC Valuation Reckoning

· Medium

The market ceases to forgive non-cash SBC, forcing GAAP-based valuation multiples to violently compress.

FV impact
-48% ($65/share)
Trigger
12-18 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Chỉ sốHiện tạiNgưỡng kích hoạt
Subscription billings growth decelerating below 10%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation expense rising above 18% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention rate dipping below 100%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting structurally below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Pace of share repurchases failing to offset SBC dilution.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Khoản mụcT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Kỳ2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Doanh thu$5.14B$6.22B$7.26B$8.45B$9.55B+16.8%
Lợi nhuận gộp$3.71B$4.51B$5.49B$6.38B$7.23B+18.1%
Lợi nhuận hoạt động$-116.0M$-182.0M$183.0M$499.0M$1.02B—
Lợi nhuận ròng$29.0M$-367.0M$1.38B$526.0M$693.0M+121.1%
EPS (pha loãng)$0.12$-1.44$5.21$1.95$2.59+115.5%
EBITDA$377.0M$206.0M$752.0M$1.08B$1.47B+40.5%
R&D$1.88B$2.25B$2.46B$2.63B$2.68B+9.3%
SG&A$1.95B$2.44B$2.84B$3.25B$3.53B+16.0%

Điểm chất lượng

Điểm Piotroski F
8 / 9
Điểm chất lượng tổng hợp 0–9
Điểm Altman Z
2.69
Rủi ro phá sản (>3 an toàn)
Điểm Beneish M
-2.78
Rủi ro thao túng lợi nhuận
OCF / Lợi nhuận ròng
4.24×
>1 cho thấy chất lượng lợi nhuận cao
Cổng chất lượng kế toán
Pass
Cổng điều chỉnh theo ngành
ROIC
7.6%
Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn đầu tư
Phần 3

Numbers analysis

Dòng tiền

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Phân bổ vốn

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Người đăng ký cá nhân — từ §411 phần nữa

Đọc phân tích đầy đủ — 11 phần nữa.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

WDAY income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of WDAY (WDAY) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

WDAY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDAY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $128 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $95.3 (range $66.0–$125), which implies roughly 25.5% downside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder