The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
NYSE: GS · Real-Time Price · USD
$936
+10.65 (+1.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GS rated Sell
Sell. Market exuberance ignores cyclical normalization and regulatory capital realities.
Fair value (mid)
$628 / share
$451 – $787
Upside to FV
-32.9%
from $936
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated recovery in M&A and capital markets activity drives outsized near-term earnings, while the Asset & Wealth Management segment achieves sustained high-margin growth, commanding a premium valuation multiple.
Biggest risk
Sustained Capital Markets Freeze
Sustained Capital Markets Freeze: Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty stalls M&A and underwriting pipelines, structurally dragging investment banking revenues.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. With shares trading at $936.48 against our $628.13 fair value, the risk/reward is heavily skewed to the downside, implying 33% downside risk.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $276.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 61.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 17.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $54.6 | |
| Shares out | 306.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 17.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 14.3x | |
| Dividend | $18.0 (1.92%) | |
| Volume | 1,664,426 | |
| Beta | 1.27 | |
| Price target | $922 | -1.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 61.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 17.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $54.6
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 14.3x
- Market cap
- $276.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $59.34B | $47.37B | $46.25B | $53.51B | $58.28B | -0.4% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $21.64B | $11.26B | $8.52B | $14.28B | $17.18B | -5.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $30.06 | $22.87 | $40.54 | $51.32 | +14.3% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $18.27B | $15.96B | $16.13B | $17.35B | $19.62B | +1.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $451
- Fair value (mid)
- $628
- Fair value (high)
- $787
- Current price
- $936
- Upside to mid
- -32.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $695 | 55% |
| Residual income | $610 | 35% |
| Ddm | $325 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $982 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $1019 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $139 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $1973 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$922
-1.6%
In the news
Latest news · GS
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $276.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 14.3x
- P/S
- 4.7x
- P/B
- 2.6x
- PEG
- 1.29
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.3%
- Operating margin
- 37.6%
- ROE
- 14.5%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- ROIC
- 2.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 6.79
- Current ratio
- 1.50
- Quick ratio
- 1.35
Trading
- Beta
- 1.27
- Volume
- 1,664,426
- Dividend yield
- 1.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -25.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$786.68
-16.0% from spot
Accelerated recovery in M&A and capital markets activity drives outsized near-term earnings, while the Asset & Wealth Management segment achieves sustained high-margin growth, commanding a premium valuation multiple.
- Rapid M&A and capital markets recovery.
- Asset & Wealth Management margin expansion.
- Terminal PE multiple expands to 15x.
Base55%
Price target
$628.13
-32.9% from spot
Goldman manages a steady pivot towards Asset & Wealth Management, with capital markets reverting to trend. Normalized returns dictate a value significantly below current market exuberance.
- Normalized ROE of 13.04%.
- Terminal PE of 13x.
- Steady transition to fee-based revenue.
Bear25%
Price target
$451.19
-51.8% from spot
Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty stifles investment banking pipelines, and legacy efforts to pivot away from consumer platforms result in an extended drag on ROE and multiple compression.
- Extended capital markets freeze.
- Elevated regulatory capital requirements.
- Terminal PE compresses to 11x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $628.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $695 | -25.8% | |
| Residual income | 35% | $610 | -34.9% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $325 | -65.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $982 | +4.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $1019 | +8.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $139 | -85.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $1973 | +110.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $628 | -32.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $828 | $916 | $1024 | $1162 | $1216 |
| 7.7% | $695 | $755 | $828 | $916 | $1024 |
| 8.7% | $599 | $643 | $695 | $755 | $828 |
| 9.7% | $526 | $560 | $599 | $643 | $695 |
| 10.7% | $469 | $496 | $526 | $560 | $599 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.0
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment4.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
5.0/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 73/100
Target weight
Underweight or short, given current asymmetric downside risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$936
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Take profits or trim long exposure at current levels (~$936), as the price fully reflects peak-cycle assumptions.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E14.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE14.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All GS indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
246
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 246 of 246 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GS
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GS report
What is the current GS stock rating?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GS analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GS/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GS?
The latest report frames GS around $451 to $787. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GS page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellGS · Fair value $628-32.9% · Confidence 73/100