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MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $89.9, high $162, with mid-point at $128.
Stock analysis

MS fair value $90–$162

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-08下次更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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股价
$193.09
▼ -65.03 (-33.68%)
公允价值
$128
$90–$162
评级
卖出
confidence 88/100
上行空间
-33.7%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$108.85
MoS level · 15%
市值
$304.6B
P/E fwd 15.2
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $128 with high case $162.
  • Implied downside of 33.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$128
Margin of safety
-50.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$193.09Price
Low $89.88
Mid $128.06
High $161.78

MS trades against a final fair-value range of $89.88-$161.78, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale and brand prestige in
    Scale and brand prestige in Wealth Management ($5T+ client assets).
  • Top-three global ranking in Equities
    Top-three global ranking in Equities and Investment Banking.
  • Cycle upside
    Expanding global money supply, robust IPO/M&A activity, and rising equity markets driving AUM growth.

§2 看空情景

Under a severe stagflationary environment, the dual impact of plunging asset values on fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and paralyzed M&A/capital markets activity could collapse EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. towards the DDM floor of $71.45. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. reverses violently.

该论点可能失败的方式

Severe Equity Market Drawdown

25%· Medium

A prolonged 20%+ market correction drives severe AUM attrition, compressing fee yields and crushing capital markets activity simultaneously.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
0-12 months

Wealth Management Margin Compression

15%· Low

Intensified competition for advisor talent and client cash sorting drives structurally lower net interest margins and fee compression.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Capital Penalties

10%· Low

Basel endgame or enhanced capital requirements force MS to hold significantly more equity, permanently impairing ROTCE.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
18-36 months
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Consecutive quarters of negative net new assets in Wealth Management.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained declines in net interest margin.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Surge in advisor attrition or elevated recruitment costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital markets revenue underperforming peer benchmarks (GS).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
ROTCE falling persistently below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$56.41B$50.21B$50.67B$57.62B$65.97B+4.0%
毛利——————
营业利润——————
净利润$15.03B$11.03B$9.09B$13.39B$16.86B+2.9%
每股收益（摊薄）—$6.15$5.18$7.95$10.21+13.5%
EBITDA——————
研发——————
销售管理费用$25.27B$23.96B$25.46B$27.14B$30.25B+4.6%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
-1.06
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Pass
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
—
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

MS reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for MS (MS) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

MS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MS looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $193 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $128 (range $89.9–$162), which implies roughly 33.7% downside to the midpoint.

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