RTX trades against a final fair-value range of $134.31-$236.65, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $237, with mid-point at $185.
Stock analysis
RTX CorporationRTX RTX Corporation fair value $185–$237
Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$185
Margin of safety
+5.0%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$176.09Price
FV $185.4
High $236.65
RTX trades against a final fair-value range of $134.31-$236.65, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs in commercial
High switching costs in commercial aviation aftermarket
Intangible assets via defense IP
Intangible assets via defense IP and classified clearances
Cycle upside
Commercial aviation super-cycle driven by aging fleet replacements and elevated global passenger traffic.
Protracted shortages in titanium and specialized aerospace components halt commercial aircraft deliveries, severely delaying backlog conversion and capping near-term cash generation.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 Months
Defense Budget Contraction
· Medium
A significant shift in US geopolitical strategy or domestic fiscal policy freezes defense spending, crushing growth for Raytheon and capping segment margins.
FV impact
-10%
Trigger
24-36 Months
Fixed-Price Contract Disaster
· Medium
Severe cost overruns on legacy fixed-price defense development programs destroy segment profitability, requiring massive cash outflows to fulfill contractual obligations.
FV impact
-12%
Trigger
12-18 Months
Early-warning signals to monitor
Metric
Current
Trigger threshold
Sequential declines in commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
EBIT margin contraction in the Raytheon defense segment below 9%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Consolidated book-to-bill ratio falling sustainably below 1.0x.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Further delays or cost revisions in Pratt & Whitney GTF engine fleet fixes.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
CapEx-to-revenue ratio spiking above historical 4% averages without revenue yield.
Based on our latest independent analysis, RTX looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $176 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $185 (range $134–$237), which implies roughly 5.3% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for RTX is $134–$237, with a midpoint of $185. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for RTX Corporation's archetype.
Our current rating for RTX is Hold with a confidence score of 88/100. RTX is rated Hold at $176.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $185.40, implying +5.29% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for RTX Corporation are: Supply Chain Collapse; Defense Budget Contraction; Fixed-Price Contract Disaster. The single biggest risk is Supply Chain Collapse: Protracted shortages in titanium and specialized aerospace components halt commercial aircraft deliveries, severely delaying backlog conversion and capping near-term cash generation.
Our current rating for RTX is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($134–$237) versus the current price of $176.
RTX Corporation is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for RTX.
