TJX trades against a final fair-value range of $106.34-$185.19, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $106, high $185, with mid-point at $146.
Stock analysis
The TJX Companies Inc.TJX The TJX Companies Inc. fair value $146–$185
Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$146
Margin of safety
-5.3%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$153.36Price
FV $145.71
High $185.19
TJX trades against a final fair-value range of $106.34-$185.19, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Unmatched global buyer network leveraging
Unmatched global buyer network leveraging scale and vendor relationships.
Highly flexible, opportunistic supply chain
Highly flexible, opportunistic supply chain resistant to traditional retail cycles.
Bull thesis
Exceptional business quality but current valuation requires immaculate execution.
§2 Bear case
Under severe macroeconomic contraction, TJX typically benefits from consumer trade-down. However, if discretionary spending universally collapses while freight and wage costs remain sticky, operating margins could fall into the single digits.
Ways this thesis can break
E-commerce Disruption
· Low
Digital-first apparel platforms replicate the off-price 'treasure hunt' online, eroding store traffic and threatening TJX's moat.
Based on our latest analysis, TJX trades close to fair value. The current price is $153 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $146 (range $106–$185), which implies roughly 5.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TJX is $106–$185, with a midpoint of $146. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for The TJX Companies Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for TJX is Hold with a confidence score of 88/100. TJX is rated Hold at $153.36 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $145.71, implying -4.99% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for The TJX Companies Inc. are: E-commerce Disruption; Structural Margin Compression; Core Market Saturation. The single biggest risk is E-commerce Disruption: Digital-first apparel platforms replicate the off-price 'treasure hunt' online, eroding store traffic and threatening TJX's moat.
Our current rating for TJX is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($106–$185) versus the current price of $153.
The TJX Companies Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TJX.
