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TJX trades against a final fair-value range of $106.34-$185.19, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Under severe macroeconomic contraction, TJX typically benefits from consumer trade-down. However, if discretionary spending universally collapses while freight and wage costs remain sticky, operating margins could fall into the single digits.
Digital-first apparel platforms replicate the off-price 'treasure hunt' online, eroding store traffic and threatening TJX's moat.
Persistent wage inflation, freight costs, and supply chain inefficiencies permanently reset operating margins below 10%.
Exhaustion of viable new store locations in North America significantly stalls revenue growth below the 5% target.
| Line item | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.55B | $49.94B+2.9% | $54.22B+8.6% | $56.36B+3.9% | $60.37B+7.1% | +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $13.84B | $13.79B | $16.27B | $17.25B | $18.69B | +7.8% |
| Operating income | $4.76B | $4.86B | $5.80B | $6.30B | $7.18B | +10.8% |
| Net income | $3.28B | $3.50B+6.7% | $4.47B+27.7% | $4.86B+8.7% | $5.49B+13.0% | +13.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.70 | $2.97 | $3.86 | $4.26 | $4.87 | +15.9% |
| EBITDA | $5.39B | $5.61B | $7.01B | $7.66B | $8.62B | +12.5% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $9.08B | $8.93B | $10.47B | $10.95B | $11.52B | +6.1% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| C-suite turnover impacting the highly specialized buyer network. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Inability to pass through freight and wage costs to consumers. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
