Autodesk holds dominance in AEC software but currently trades at an unjustifiable premium given structural SaaS maturation, heavy stock-based compensation, and acute commercial real estate cyclicality. Fair value range: low $129, high $221, with mid-point at $175.
Our financial-history view of ADSK (ADSK) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
The revenue trajectory is reported in the financial-history section with year-over-year growth rates. Direction and acceleration are summarised inline; the full table sits within the parent financials tab.
We track operating income alongside operating margin so the reader can separate top-line growth from operating leverage. The numbers analysis subsection flags one-offs, restructuring, and stock-based-compensation effects when material.
Net income is shown together with EPS so dilution and buybacks are visible alongside profit. Where reported net income diverges materially from operating cash flow, the discrepancy is called out in the numbers-analysis subsection.
FAQ
ADSK — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, ADSK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $244 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $175 (range $129–$221), which implies roughly 28.4% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for ADSK is $129–$221, with a midpoint of $175. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for ADSK's archetype.
Our current rating for ADSK is Sell with a confidence score of 88/100. ADSK is rated Sell at $243.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $174.50, implying -28.37% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for ADSK are: Construction Cycle Collapse; Margin Fade Under SBC Burden; Niche Competitor Encroachment. The single biggest risk is Construction Cycle Collapse: Global commercial real estate enters a multi-year deep freeze, severely cutting enterprise software seat counts and stalling BIM adoption.
Our current rating for ADSK is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($129–$221) versus the current price of $244.
ADSK is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for ADSK.
