Autodesk holds dominance in AEC software but currently trades at an unjustifiable premium given structural SaaS maturation, heavy stock-based compensation, and acute commercial real estate cyclicality. Fair value range: low $129, high $221, with mid-point at $175.
ADSK (ADSK)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.
EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.
Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.
FAQ
ADSK — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, ADSK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $244 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $175 (range $129–$221), which implies roughly 28.4% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for ADSK is $129–$221, with a midpoint of $175. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for ADSK's archetype.
Our current rating for ADSK is Sell with a confidence score of 88/100. ADSK is rated Sell at $243.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $174.50, implying -28.37% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for ADSK are: Construction Cycle Collapse; Margin Fade Under SBC Burden; Niche Competitor Encroachment. The single biggest risk is Construction Cycle Collapse: Global commercial real estate enters a multi-year deep freeze, severely cutting enterprise software seat counts and stalling BIM adoption.
Our current rating for ADSK is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($129–$221) versus the current price of $244.
ADSK is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for ADSK.
