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StockMarketAgent
Section 3 · as of 2026-05-09

Sector rotation

What this is warning you about first. Defensive tilt strengthening: Utilities, Staples, and Healthcare leading; Discretionary and Real Estate lagging. Defensive leadership is a late-cycle tell, not a congratulations. Cyclical underperformance — Discretionary, Materials, Real Estate — is the corner of the market that breaks first when revisions deteriorate, and it is breaking now.

Eleven GICS sectors

Sector
RS rank
Tilt
Fwd P/E
Fwd EPS g%
Rationale
78
neutral
27.8
14.2%
Still leading on absolute return, but contribution is concentrated in five names and forward EPS revisions decelerating.
64
neutral
19.1
11.6%
Ad-platform names carry the sector; legacy telco drag continues. Earnings dispersion at the cohort level is wider than the cap-weight suggests.
71
overweight
17.4
9.8%
Defensive bid plus GLP-2 pipeline catalysts. Forward growth respectable, multiple compressed against history. Best risk-adjusted setup in the sector list.
68
overweight
21.2
6.4%
Classic late-cycle leader. Pricing-power cohort holding margin; private-label cohort under pressure. Watch unit-volume revisions.
75
overweight
19.6
7.1%
AI data-centre power demand thesis re-rated the regulated cohort; multiple now stretched against historical band. Position size matters.
52
neutral
21.0
8.3%
Capex backlog still healthy; new-order growth decelerating. Backlog-to-revenue ratio at 1.4× — visibility cushion is shrinking.
56
neutral
13.8
5.9%
Net-interest-margin tailwind fading; loan-loss provisions ticking up at money-centre banks. Insurance cohort is the relative winner.
47
neutral
11.4
4.2%
Capital-discipline cohort still buying back stock; capex at trough valuations. Cyclical-archetype caveat: trough multiples on trough earnings is the trap.
38
underweight
24.6
11.1%
Low-end consumer rolling over fastest; high-end holding. Restaurants and homebuilders showing earliest revision deterioration.
31
underweight
18.2
4.6%
Rate-sensitive cohort whipsawed by long-end repricing. CMBS spreads widening; office cohort still mark-to-market underwater.
44
underweight
17.9
5.3%
Chemicals cohort earnings revisions sharply negative. Mining cohort dependent on China demand stabilising — has not.
The relative-strength rank uses a cap-weighted 1m, 3m, and 6m composite normalized to 0–100. Tilts are editorial: they encode the cross of relative-strength and the sector's archetype-adjusted fair-value range. For the per-sector deep-dive, browse the sector hubs.