American Express Company (AXP)
NYSE: AXP · Real-Time Price · USD
$316
-2.65 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AXP rated Reduce
Reduce rating initiated based on a fair value estimate of $253.52, driven by disciplined structural multiple mean-reversion.
Fair value (mid)
$254 / share
$180 – $314
Upside to FV
-19.8%
from $316
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: The bull case assumes AXP retains its premium payments network multiple, escaping traditional banking mean-reversion while delivering sustained double-digit top-line growth.
Biggest risk
Severe Macroeconomic Contraction
Severe Macroeconomic Contraction: A prolonged macroeconomic downturn spikes credit provisions and default rates across the affluent and SME base.
Recommended action
Reduce
Reduce. The current price of $316.03 offers an unfavorable risk/reward skew given our $253.52 fair value estimate, representing approximately 20% downside risk driven by multiple compression.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $215.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 68.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 11.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $16.0 | |
| Shares out | 682.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 19.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 15.7x | |
| Dividend | $3.80 (1.20%) | |
| Volume | 6,802,213 | |
| Beta | 1.08 | |
| Price target | $357 | +13.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 68.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 11.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $16.0
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.7x
- Market cap
- $215.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $52.86B | $60.52B | $65.95B | $72.23B | +11.0% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $7.51B | $8.37B | $10.13B | $10.83B | +13.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.85 | $11.21 | $14.01 | $15.38 | +16.0% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $12.71B | $13.28B | $14.24B | $15.27B | +6.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $180
- Fair value (mid)
- $254
- Fair value (high)
- $314
- Current price
- $316
- Upside to mid
- -19.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $255 | 55% |
| Residual income | $251 | 45% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $71.94 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$357
+13.1%
In the news
Latest news · AXP
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $215.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.7x
- P/S
- 3.1x
- P/B
- 6.3x
- PEG
- 1.45
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 62.8%
- Operating margin
- 20.4%
- ROE
- 34.4%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- ROIC
- 11.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.78
- Current ratio
- 1.57
- Quick ratio
- 1.56
Trading
- Beta
- 1.08
- Volume
- 6,802,213
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -19.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$314.38
-0.5% from spot
The bull case assumes AXP retains its premium payments network multiple, escaping traditional banking mean-reversion while delivering sustained double-digit top-line growth.
- Continued acquisition of premium millennial and Gen-Z cohorts.
- Robust travel and entertainment spend recovery driving double-digit revenue growth.
- Sustained 30%+ ROE with expanding operating leverage.
Base55%
Price target
$253.52
-19.8% from spot
Our base case enforces structural mean-reversion, assuming AXP's terminal P/E compresses to 13x, driving the divergence against internal valuation cross-checks expectations of persistent network premiums.
- Terminal multiple mean-reverts to 13x.
- Long-term nominal GDP growth alignment (2.5%).
- Steady state revenue deceleration curve starting at 9.22%.
Bear25%
Price target
$179.90
-43.1% from spot
A bear case materializes if credit defaults spike concurrently with a recessionary collapse in travel spending, compressing margins and forcing a harsh multiple de-rating.
- Prolonged macroeconomic downturn spikes credit provisions.
- Fierce competition forces higher reward and marketing expenses.
- Terminal multiple compresses heavily to traditional banking lows.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $254.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $255 | -19.2% | |
| Residual income | 45% | $251 | -20.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $71.9 | -77.2% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $254 | -19.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $301 | $333 | $372 | $421 | $444 |
| 7.8% | $254 | $275 | $301 | $333 | $372 |
| 8.8% | $219 | $235 | $254 | $275 | $301 |
| 9.8% | $192 | $205 | $219 | $235 | $254 |
| 10.8% | $172 | $181 | $192 | $205 | $219 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.4
Balance Sheet4.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.4 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Underweight or avoid initiating positions at current market levels.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$316
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim existing positions on any continued multiple expansion tracking toward the $361.57 internal valuation cross-checks.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE34.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC11.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All AXP indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
263
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 263 of 263 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AXP
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AXP report
What is the current AXP stock rating?
American Express Company is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AXP analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AXP/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AXP?
The latest report frames AXP around $180 to $314. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AXP page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceAXP · Fair value $254-19.8% · Confidence 88/100