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BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-09Next update: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
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Last price
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Fair value
$126
$126–$179
Rating
Hold
confidence 78/100
Upside
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Market Cap
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Bear case

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Ways this thesis can break

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Period2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Gross profit——————
Operating income——————
Net income$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
EPS (diluted)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
1.54×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
—
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.

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