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CMCSA trades against a final fair-value range of $91.52-$153.58, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated cord-cutting tests Comcast's highly leveraged balance sheet ($98.9B total debt). At an Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA composite bankruptcy-risk model. Above 3.0 is the safe zone; below 1.8 is the distress zone. Mostly relevant for capital-intensive non-financial firms. of 1.44, distress-adjacent risks materialize if operating cash flows break below maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct. requirements (historically 11.5% of revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.), forcing dividend cuts or distressed asset sales.
Fixed Wireless Access permanently alters broadband pricing power, causing sustained subscriber losses and collapsing broadband margins.
Higher-for-longer interest rates force refinancing of the $98.9B debt load at punitive yields, overwhelming free cash flow generation.
Legacy video and broadcast revenue declines accelerate beyond the modeled 1.6% contraction, dragging consolidated enterprise EBITDA down structurally.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $121.43B | $121.57B+0.1% | $123.73B+1.8% | $123.71B-0.0% | +0.6% |
| Gross profit | $83.21B | $84.81B | $86.71B | $88.76B | +2.2% |
| Operating income | $22.62B | $23.31B | $23.30B | $20.67B | -3.0% |
| Net income | $5.37B | $15.39B+186.6% | $16.19B+5.2% | $20.00B+23.5% | +55.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.21 | $3.71 | $4.14 | $5.39 | +64.5% |
| EBITDA | $27.00B | $38.90B | $37.61B | $46.39B | +19.8% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $8.51B | $7.97B | $8.07B | $8.86B | +1.4% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| OCF to Net Income ratio contracting below historical 1.68x levels. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Peacock operating losses failing to narrow despite subscriber acquisition. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
