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CMI trades against a final fair-value range of $423.89-$651.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A faster-than-expected global regulatory mandate for fully electric heavy-duty vehicles renders legacy engine intellectual property obsolete, stranding assets and severely depressing returns on invested capital before Accelera achieves scale.
Global emission regulations tighten faster than expected, stranding highly profitable legacy diesel assets and crashing near-term FCF.
The Accelera clean energy segment fails to reach structural profitability despite heavy capital expenditures, permanently diluting corporate ROIC.
A deep downturn in global freight and construction markets coincides with peak EV transition spending, squeezing liquidity and margins simultaneously.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $28.07B | $34.07B+21.4% | $34.10B+0.1% | $33.67B-1.3% | +4.6% |
| Gross profit | — | $6.72B | $8.25B | $8.44B | $8.52B | +6.1% |
| Operating income | — | $2.58B | $1.28B | $3.37B | $3.87B | +10.6% |
| Net income | — | $2.15B | $735.0M-65.8% | $3.95B+437.4% | $2.84B-28.1% | +7.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.61 | $15.12 | $5.15 | $28.37 | $20.50 | +8.8% |
| EBITDA | — | $3.80B | $3.03B | $6.34B | $5.40B | +9.2% |
| R&D | — | $1.28B | $1.50B | $1.46B | $1.40B | +2.2% |
| SG&A | — | $2.69B | $3.33B | $3.28B | $3.13B | +3.8% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Monitor |
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Peer median P/E compresses to <20x, signaling broader industrial multiple contraction. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Free cash flow conversion drops materially due to elevated maintenance and transition capex. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
