DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)
NASDAQ: DASH · Real-Time Price · USD
$164
-7.42 (-4.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: DASH rated Reduce
DASH is rated Reduce at $162.67 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $142.82, implying -12.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$143 / share
$69.4 – $225
Upside to FV
-12.2%
from $164
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: DASH executes perfectly on non-restaurant verticals and advertising, driving massive operating leverage without heavy customer acquisition costs. Regulatory risks fade, allowing the terminal P/E to reflect a dominant, mature tech monopoly.
Biggest risk
Gig Worker Reclassification
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Reduce
DASH is rated Reduce at $162.67 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $142.82, implying -12.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $70.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 14.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 926M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.10 | |
| Shares out | 435.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 78.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 20.9x | |
| Volume | 6,027,211 | |
| Beta | 1.87 | |
| Price target | $258 | +57.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 14.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 926M
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.10
- P/E (trailing)
- 78.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.9x
- Market cap
- $70.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $6.58B | $8.64B | $10.72B | $13.72B | +20.1% |
| Gross profit | — | $3.00B | $4.05B | $5.18B | $6.98B | +23.6% |
| Operating income | — | $-1.03B | $-577.0M | $-38.0M | $725.0M | — |
| Net income | — | $-1.37B | $-558.0M | $123.0M | $935.0M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.39 | $-3.68 | $-1.42 | $0.30 | — | — |
| EBITDA | — | $-663.0M | $-68.0M | $523.0M | $1.47B | — |
| R&D | — | $829.0M | $1.00B | $1.17B | $1.43B | +14.6% |
| SG&A | — | $2.83B | $3.11B | $3.49B | $4.08B | +9.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $69.4
- Fair value (mid)
- $143
- Fair value (high)
- $225
- Current price
- $164
- Upside to mid
- -12.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $228 | 45% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $50.05 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $85.21 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $55.63 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $186 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$258
+57.2%
In the news
Latest news · DASH
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $70.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 78.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.9x
- P/S
- 4.9x
- P/B
- 7.0x
- PEG
- 0.70
- EV / EBITDA
- 51.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 51.8%
- Operating margin
- 6.0%
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- 3.3%
- ROIC
- 11.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.32
- Current ratio
- 1.43
- Quick ratio
- 1.12
Trading
- Beta
- 1.87
- Volume
- 6,027,211
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -11.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$224.99
+38.3% from spot
DASH executes perfectly on non-restaurant verticals and advertising, driving massive operating leverage without heavy customer acquisition costs. Regulatory risks fade, allowing the terminal P/E to reflect a dominant, mature tech monopoly.
- Ad revenue and new verticals scale flawlessly.
- Operating margins expand well past 12%.
- Terminal multiple stabilizes at 28x.
Base60%
Price target
$142.82
-12.2% from spot
Blends aggressive forward estimates with harsh cash-flow realities. Ad revenue grows, but structural SBC dilution and market saturation limit infinite multiple expansion. The valuation bridges growth optimism with strict fundamental floors.
- 12% terminal operating margin.
- 3% terminal growth rate.
- 22x terminal multiple.
Bear20%
Price target
$69.43
-57.3% from spot
Regulatory headwinds force a structural reset in fulfillment costs. Margins stagnate as DASH is unable to pass price hikes to a fatigued consumer base. SBC remains high while actual owner earnings collapse.
- Gig worker reclassification enforces structural cost increases.
- Take rates compress under UberEats pressure.
- Terminal multiple crashes to 15x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $143.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $228 | +39.2% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $50.0 | -69.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $85.2 | -48.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $55.6 | -66.1% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $186 | +13.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $143 | -12.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($142.82). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.6% | $162 | $173 | $186 | $201 | $219 |
| 10.6% | $143 | $152 | $162 | $173 | $186 |
| 11.6% | $128 | $135 | $143 | $152 | $162 |
| 12.6% | $116 | $122 | $128 | $135 | $143 |
| 13.6% | $106 | $111 | $116 | $122 | $128 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 3.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Underweight or zero allocation. Current market pricing demands flawless execution and leaves zero margin for error regarding labor regulations or margin compression.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$164
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim existing positions above $150 to lock in hyper-growth multiples before mature marketplace realities and dilution mechanics compress long-term terminal valuations.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E20.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE9.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC11
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All DASH indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
251
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 251 of 251 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on DASH
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this DASH report
What is the current DASH stock rating?
DoorDash, Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full DASH analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/DASH/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for DASH?
The latest report frames DASH around $69 to $225. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the DASH page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceDASH · Fair value $143-12.2% · Confidence 80/100