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EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A synchronized global industrial recession combined with delays in clean energy CAPEXCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). stalls near-term automation spending. The newly acquired software segments fail to offset hardware cyclicality, causing margins to revert to the 16% historical peer average.
Failure to extract synergies from recent software acquisitions causes ROIC to stagnate below WACC, driven by the $18B goodwill burden.
Macroeconomic weakness and deferred conventional energy projects significantly halt process automation spending across key markets.
Current 24.2% operating margins prove unsustainable and revert to the 16% historical industry norm amidst competitive pricing pressures.
| Line item | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.80B | $15.17B+9.9% | $17.49B+15.3% | $18.02B+3.0% | +9.3% |
| Gross profit | $6.31B | $7.43B | $8.89B | $9.52B | +14.7% |
| Operating income | $2.36B | $2.76B | $2.67B | $3.53B | +14.4% |
| Net income | $3.23B | $13.22B+309.3% | $1.97B-85.1% | $2.29B+16.2% | -10.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.41 | $22.88 | $3.43 | $4.04 | -9.3% |
| EBITDA | $3.50B | $4.22B | $4.03B | $4.84B | +11.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $3.61B | $4.19B | $5.14B | $5.10B | +12.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Significant downward revisions in forward private EPS estimate reference. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Management pausing or cutting the dividend/buyback program to preserve cash. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
