Is Diamondback Energy Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 204 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 152 (range USD 92.1–USD 213), implying roughly 25.4% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is FANG's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives FANG a composite fair-value range of USD 92.1–USD 213, with a midpoint of USD 152. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Diamondback Energy Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy FANG now?

Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell with a confidence score of 72/100. Diamondback Energy Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 204 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 152. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for FANG?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-20 flags for Diamondback Energy Inc. are: Severe Commodity Downcycle; Cost Inflation Squeeze; M&A Integration Failure.

What is FANG's rating?

Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a confidence score of 72/100 and a moat score of 3/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 92.1–USD 213) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 204).

What archetype is FANG?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, Diamondback Energy Inc. is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FANG.

What is FANG's free cash flow?

Free cash flow for Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

Is FANG burning cash?

Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.

What does FANG spend on capex?

Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.

How does FANG return cash to shareholders?

The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.

FANG cash flow: operating, investing, financing

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-20; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality. Fair value range: low $92.1, high $213, with mid-point at $152.

CASH FLOW FAQ

FANG cash flow questions

Free cash flow for Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

FANG — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 204 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 152 (range USD 92.1–USD 213), implying roughly 25.4% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Operating margins dropping and staying below 25% for 12 months.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained forward estimate revisions dropping below $10 EPS.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-D&A ratio diverging significantly above 1.5x structurally.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$6.75B	$9.57B+41.8%	$8.34B-12.9%	$11.02B+32.1%	$14.93B+35.5%	+22.0%
Gross profit	$4.27B	$6.70B	$4.80B	$4.99B	$5.22B	+5.2%
Operating income	$4.08B	$6.52B	$4.57B	$4.40B	$4.92B	+4.8%
Net income	$2.18B	$4.39B+101.4%	$3.14B-28.5%	$3.34B+6.4%	$1.66B-50.3%	-6.6%
EPS (diluted)	$12.30	$24.61	$17.34	$15.53	$5.73	-17.4%
EBITDA	$4.37B	$7.23B	$6.17B	$7.64B	$7.18B	+13.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$146.0M	$144.0M	$150.0M	$213.0M	$288.0M	+18.5%

FANG cash flow questions

FANG — frequently asked questions

FANG Diamondback Energy Inc. fair value $92–$213

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of FANG also follow

§2 Bear case

Severe Commodity Downcycle

Cost Inflation Squeeze

M&A Integration Failure

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.