Is Diamondback Energy Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 204 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 152 (range USD 92.1–USD 213), implying roughly 25.4% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is FANG's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives FANG a composite fair-value range of USD 92.1–USD 213, with a midpoint of USD 152. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Diamondback Energy Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy FANG now?

Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell with a confidence score of 72/100. Diamondback Energy Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 204 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 152. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for FANG?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-20 flags for Diamondback Energy Inc. are: Severe Commodity Downcycle; Cost Inflation Squeeze; M&A Integration Failure.

What is FANG's rating?

Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a confidence score of 72/100 and a moat score of 3/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 92.1–USD 213) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 204).

What archetype is FANG?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, Diamondback Energy Inc. is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FANG.

What is FANG's intrinsic value?

Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

How do you calculate FANG's fair value?

Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.

Why does FANG use cost of equity instead of WACC?

EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.

What is owner earnings for FANG?

Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.

FANG intrinsic value: discounted earnings and owner earnings

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-20; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality. Fair value range: low $92.1, high $213, with mid-point at $152.

INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

FANG intrinsic value questions

Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

FANG — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 204 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 152 (range USD 92.1–USD 213), implying roughly 25.4% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Operating margins dropping and staying below 25% for 12 months.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained forward estimate revisions dropping below $10 EPS.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-D&A ratio diverging significantly above 1.5x structurally.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$6.75B	$9.57B+41.8%	$8.34B-12.9%	$11.02B+32.1%	$14.93B+35.5%	+22.0%
Gross profit	$4.27B	$6.70B	$4.80B	$4.99B	$5.22B	+5.2%
Operating income	$4.08B	$6.52B	$4.57B	$4.40B	$4.92B	+4.8%
Net income	$2.18B	$4.39B+101.4%	$3.14B-28.5%	$3.34B+6.4%	$1.66B-50.3%	-6.6%
EPS (diluted)	$12.30	$24.61	$17.34	$15.53	$5.73	-17.4%
EBITDA	$4.37B	$7.23B	$6.17B	$7.64B	$7.18B	+13.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$146.0M	$144.0M	$150.0M	$213.0M	$288.0M	+18.5%

FANG intrinsic value questions

FANG — frequently asked questions

FANG Diamondback Energy Inc. fair value $92–$213

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of FANG also follow

§2 Bear case

Severe Commodity Downcycle

Cost Inflation Squeeze

M&A Integration Failure

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.