Is Illumina Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-13, ILMN looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 146 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 98.4 (range USD 74.5–USD 122), implying roughly 32.5% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is ILMN's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-13, gives ILMN a composite fair-value range of USD 74.5–USD 122, with a midpoint of USD 98.4. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Illumina Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy ILMN now?

Our latest published rating for ILMN, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Sell with a confidence score of 74/100. Illumina Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 146 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 98.4. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for ILMN?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-13 flags for Illumina Inc. are: Severe Moat Fade & Pricing War; Elasticity Failure on NovaSeq X; Capital Allocation Missteps.

What is ILMN's rating?

Our latest published rating for ILMN, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Sell, with a confidence score of 74/100 and a moat score of 6/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 74.5–USD 122) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 146).

What archetype is ILMN?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-13, Illumina Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for ILMN.

What are ILMN's bull, base, and bear cases?

Each scenario for Illumina Inc. (ILMN) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

How are ILMN's probability weights set?

Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.

What is ILMN's expected return?

Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.

How do ILMN's scenarios compare to private calibration references?

When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.

ILMN scenarios: bull, base, bear with probability weights

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-13; report age: stale; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Illumina remains the dominant player in genomic sequencing but is transitioning into a mature compounder phase. Having resolved recent antitrust distractions and returned to profitability in 2025, the company faces normalized mid-single-digit growth, requiring disciplined capital allocation and margin protection against emerging competitors. Fair value range: low $74.5, high $122, with mid-point at $98.4.

SCENARIOS FAQ

ILMN scenarios questions

Each scenario for Illumina Inc. (ILMN) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

ILMN — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-13, ILMN looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 146 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 98.4 (range USD 74.5–USD 122), implying roughly 32.5% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Operating margin failing to sustain above the critical 15% threshold.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Forward P/E contraction steadily sliding toward the peer median of 18.28x.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Revenue growth consistently printing below 4% on a year-over-year basis.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	—	$4.58B	$4.50B-1.7%	$4.37B-2.9%	$4.34B-0.7%	-1.3%
Gross profit	—	$2.97B	$2.74B	$2.86B	$2.87B	-0.9%
Operating income	—	$354.0M	$-222.0M	$600.0M	$817.0M	+23.3%
Net income	—	$-4.40B	$-1.16B	$-1.22B	$850.0M	—
EPS (diluted)	$5.04	$-28.00	$-7.34	$-7.69	$5.45	+2.0%
EBITDA	—	$-3.92B	$-608.0M	$-725.0M	$1.46B	—
R&D	—	$1.32B	$1.35B	$1.17B	$967.0M	-7.5%
SG&A	—	$1.30B	$1.61B	$1.09B	$1.09B	-4.3%

ILMN scenarios questions

ILMN — frequently asked questions

ILMN Illumina Inc. fair value $75–$122

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of ILMN also follow

§2 Bear case

Severe Moat Fade & Pricing War

Elasticity Failure on NovaSeq X

Capital Allocation Missteps

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.