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INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A combined macro shock and IRS direct intervention. SMB bankruptcies spike, collapsing QuickBooks seat growth and Mailchimp cross-sells. Concurrently, IRS Direct File captures 20% of the simple return market. Operating margins compress to 25% as fixed R&D and elevated SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. (10.4% of revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.) deleverage.
Government filing service expands beyond simple returns, permanently impairing TurboTax volume and pricing power.
Prolonged recession triggers a wave of SMB insolvencies, driving double-digit churn in QuickBooks and Mailchimp.
Synergies between QuickBooks and Mailchimp fail to materialize, leading to substantial goodwill impairment ($13.9B total goodwill) and stunted ARPU.
| Line item | 2022-07-31 | 2023-07-31 | 2024-07-31 | 2025-07-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.73B | $14.37B+12.9% | $16.29B+13.4% | $18.83B+15.6% | +14.0% |
| Gross profit | $10.32B | $11.23B | $12.82B | $14.98B | +13.2% |
| Operating income | $2.56B | $3.14B | $3.85B | $4.94B | +24.5% |
| Net income | $2.07B | $2.38B+15.0% | $2.96B+24.4% | $3.87B+30.7% | +23.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.28 | $8.42 | $10.43 | $13.67 | +23.4% |
| EBITDA | $3.37B | $4.04B | $4.58B | $5.89B | +20.5% |
| R&D | $2.35B | $2.54B | $2.75B | $2.93B | +7.7% |
| SG&A | $5.00B | $5.06B | $5.73B | $6.64B | +9.9% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Mailchimp average revenue per user (ARPU) stagnates or declines. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Operating margins fail to maintain the 28% floor modeled in the base case. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
