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KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.
Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.
Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.
Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.
| Line item | 2021-06-30 | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $9.21B | $10.50B+14.0% | $9.81B-6.6% | $12.16B+24.0% | +7.2% |
| Gross profit | — | $5.62B | $6.28B | $5.88B | $7.40B | +7.1% |
| Operating income | — | $3.65B | $3.99B | $3.64B | $5.01B | +8.2% |
| Net income | — | $3.32B | $3.39B+2.1% | $2.76B-18.6% | $4.06B+47.1% | +5.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.37 | $21.92 | $24.15 | $20.28 | — | +11.0% |
| EBITDA | — | $4.01B | $4.50B | $3.90B | $5.34B | +7.4% |
| R&D | — | $1.11B | $1.30B | $1.28B | $1.36B | +5.3% |
| SG&A | — | $860.0M | $986.3M | $969.5M | $1.03B | +4.6% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
