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LLY trades against a final fair-value range of $1,025.31-$1,935.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A severe margin compression event driven by aggressive competitor pricing, early regulatory intervention in obesity treatments, and slower-than-expected capacity expansion. This scenario forces reliance on slower-growth legacy assets.
Medicare aggressively negotiates GLP-1 pricing, capping margins and triggering cascading price cuts across commercial channels.
Unforeseen long-term adverse cardiovascular or gastrointestinal events associated with chronic Mounjaro/Zepbound use surface.
Next-generation oral obesity treatments from competitors demonstrate superior efficacy and tolerability, obliterating the injectable market.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.32B | $28.54B+0.8% | $34.12B+19.6% | $45.04B+32.0% | $65.18B+44.7% | +23.2% |
| Gross profit | $21.01B | $21.91B | $27.04B | $36.63B | $54.13B | +26.7% |
| Operating income | $6.36B | $8.28B | $10.33B | $17.04B | $29.70B | +47.0% |
| Net income | $5.58B | $6.24B+11.8% | $5.24B-16.0% | $10.59B+102.1% | $20.64B+94.9% | +38.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.14 | $6.57 | $5.80 | $11.71 | $22.95 | +39.0% |
| EBITDA | $7.90B | $8.66B | $11.85B | $18.81B | $31.69B | +41.5% |
| R&D | $7.90B | $7.19B | $9.31B | $10.99B | $13.34B | +14.0% |
| SG&A | $6.43B | $6.44B | $7.40B | $8.59B | $11.09B | +14.6% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| PBMs securing steeper rebates, compressing net realized pricing. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Delay in oral GLP-1 pipeline readouts. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
