Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)
NASDAQ: MPWR · Real-Time Price · USD
$1601
+24.90 (+1.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MPWR rated Sell
MPWR is rated Sell at $1,600.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.46, implying -58.12% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Fair value (mid)
$670 / share
$446 – $898
Upside to FV
-58.1%
from $1601
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Flawless execution allows MPWR to capture dominant market share in AI power management, sustaining 30%+ growth and expanding margins past 40%.
Biggest risk
AI Capex Plateau
AI Capex Plateau: Hyperscaler data center spending normalizes, sharply curtailing demand for high-end power management ICs.
Recommended action
Sell
MPWR is rated Sell at $1,600.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.46, implying -58.12% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $78.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 679.7M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $14.0 | |
| Shares out | 49.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 114.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 53.1x | |
| Dividend | $8.00 (0.50%) | |
| Volume | 686,730 | |
| Beta | 1.74 | |
| Price target | $1366 | -14.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 679.7M
- EPS (ttm)
- $14.0
- P/E (trailing)
- 114.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 53.1x
- Market cap
- $78.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.21B | $1.79B | $1.82B | $2.21B | $2.79B | +23.3% |
| Gross profit | $685.5M | $1.05B | $1.02B | $1.22B | $1.54B | +22.4% |
| Operating income | $262.4M | $526.8M | $481.7M | $539.4M | $728.6M | +29.1% |
| Net income | $242.0M | $437.7M | $427.4M | $1.59B | $621.5M | +26.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.05 | $9.05 | $8.76 | $36.59 | $12.86 | +26.3% |
| EBITDA | $291.1M | $563.9M | $521.9M | $575.8M | $781.1M | +28.0% |
| R&D | $190.6M | $240.2M | $263.6M | $324.7M | $382.3M | +19.0% |
| SG&A | $232.4M | $281.6M | $275.7M | $356.8M | $428.8M | +16.5% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $446
- Fair value (mid)
- $670
- Fair value (high)
- $898
- Current price
- $1601
- Upside to mid
- -58.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $499 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $1120 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $423 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $306 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $235 | 5% |
| Owner earnings | $381 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$1366
-14.7%
In the news
Latest news · MPWR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $78.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 114.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 53.1x
- P/S
- 26.6x
- P/B
- 21.4x
- PEG
- 2.20
- EV / EBITDA
- 90.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.2%
- Operating margin
- 27.1%
- ROE
- 19.6%
- ROA
- 12.1%
- ROIC
- 28.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.01
- Current ratio
- 4.79
- Quick ratio
- 3.43
Trading
- Beta
- 1.74
- Volume
- 686,730
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -58.1% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$897.61
-43.9% from spot
Flawless execution allows MPWR to capture dominant market share in AI power management, sustaining 30%+ growth and expanding margins past 40%.
- >30% revenue growth for 5 years
- Operating margins > 40%
Base55%
Price target
$670.46
-58.1% from spot
Growth naturally decelerates to a 3% terminal rate as the AI infrastructure cycle matures, with operating margins normalizing around 32%.
- Revenue growth fading from 32% to 3%
- Terminal P/E normalizing to 25x
Bear20%
Price target
$445.50
-72.2% from spot
End-market concentration triggers severe cyclical contraction, sharply reducing top-line growth and compressing multiples to industry medians.
- Rapid deceleration in AI capex
- Margin compression below 30%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $670.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $499 | -68.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 35% | $1120 | -30.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $423 | -73.6% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $306 | -80.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $235 | -85.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $381 | -76.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $670 | -58.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.9% | $562 | $600 | $644 | $694 | $752 |
| 10.9% | $499 | $529 | $562 | $600 | $644 |
| 11.9% | $449 | $473 | $499 | $529 | $562 |
| 12.9% | $408 | $427 | $449 | $473 | $499 |
| 13.9% | $374 | $390 | $408 | $427 | $449 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.1
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
7.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 48/100
Target weight
Given extreme -58% downside to fair value and high momentum volatility, no long position is justifiable. Short positions require strict stop-losses.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1601
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- For existing holders, systematic profit-taking is strongly recommended given the massive spread between trailing intrinsic value and current market price.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E53.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE19.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC28
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
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All MPWR indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MPWR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MPWR report
What is the current MPWR stock rating?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MPWR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MPWR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MPWR?
The latest report frames MPWR around $446 to $898. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MPWR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellMPWR · Fair value $670-58.1% · Confidence 48/100