Is Moderna Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-13, MRNA looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 53.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 58.3 (range USD 41.7–USD 78.8), implying roughly 9.4% upside to the midpoint at that date.

What is MRNA's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-13, gives MRNA a composite fair-value range of USD 41.7–USD 78.8, with a midpoint of USD 58.3. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Moderna Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy MRNA now?

Our latest published rating for MRNA, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Hold with a confidence score of 54/100. Moderna Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 53.3 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 58.3. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for MRNA?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-13 flags for Moderna Inc. are: Pipeline Failure; Commercial Execution Failure; Liquidity Crisis.

What is MRNA's rating?

Our latest published rating for MRNA, analyzed 2026-05-13, is Hold, with a confidence score of 54/100 and a moat score of 3/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 41.7–USD 78.8) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 53.3).

What archetype is MRNA?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-13, Moderna Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for MRNA.

What is MRNA's intrinsic value?

Moderna Inc. (MRNA)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

How do you calculate MRNA's fair value?

Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.

Why does MRNA use cost of equity instead of WACC?

EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.

What is owner earnings for MRNA?

Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.

MRNA intrinsic value: discounted earnings and owner earnings

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-13; report age: historical; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Moderna is undergoing a high-risk transition. Following the collapse of its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, it is absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses as it sustains a massive $3.1B R&D engine. The base case assumes its validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters (RSV, CMV, personalized oncology) to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade. Fair value range: low $41.7, high $78.8, with mid-point at $58.3.

INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

MRNA intrinsic value questions

Moderna Inc. (MRNA)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

MRNA — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-13, MRNA looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 53.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 58.3 (range USD 41.7–USD 78.8), implying roughly 9.4% upside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Outstanding share count increases by more than 2-3% annually.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
RSV market share falls below 15% in upcoming respiratory seasons.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
CMV phase 3 trials fail to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$17.74B	$18.88B+6.4%	$6.75B-64.2%	$3.20B-52.6%	$1.92B-40.0%	-42.6%
Gross profit	$15.12B	$13.46B	$2.06B	$1.74B	$1.05B	-48.6%
Operating income	$13.30B	$9.42B	$-4.24B	$-3.95B	$-3.07B	NaN%
Net income	$12.20B	$8.36B-31.5%	$-4.71B	$-3.56B	$-2.82B	NaN%
EPS (diluted)	$28.29	$20.12	$-12.33	$-9.28	—	NaN%
EBITDA	$13.53B	$9.77B	$-3.62B	$-3.39B	$-2.54B	NaN%
R&D	$1.99B	$3.30B	$4.85B	$4.54B	$3.13B	+12.0%
SG&A	$567.0M	$1.13B	$1.55B	$1.17B	$1.02B	+15.8%

MRNA intrinsic value questions

MRNA — frequently asked questions

MRNA Moderna Inc. fair value $42–$79

§1 Executive summary

Names readers of MRNA also follow

§2 Bear case

Pipeline Failure

Commercial Execution Failure

Liquidity Crisis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.