Strategy Inc (MSTR)
NASDAQ: MSTR · Real-Time Price · USD
$188
+7.75 (+4.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MSTR rated Sell
Sell. The deterministic pipeline yields a $6.94 standalone software fair value, mechanically ignoring the massive, un-modeled Bitcoin treasury that drives the $166.93 market price.
Fair value (mid)
$6.94 / share
$4.63 – $9.81
Upside to FV
-95.8%
from $188
Confidence
13/100
Moat
3/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Values only the upper-bound potential of the legacy enterprise software business using expanded EV/Revenue multiples. This fundamentally ignores the digital asset treasury, reflecting only the operating unit.
Biggest risk
Debt Coverage Failure
Debt Coverage Failure: Software operating cash flows completely fail to cover annual interest expenses, triggering liquidity crises and forced deleveraging.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The core software segment yields a standalone $6.94 fair value. The $166.93 stock price relies entirely on the multi-billion dollar Bitcoin treasury and the market's willingness to sustain an extreme NAV premium to fuel the capital flywheel.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $58.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 490.5M | |
| Net income (ttm) | -12.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $-43.0 | |
| Shares out | 350.9M | |
| P/E (forward) | 37.4x | |
| Volume | 15,985,220 | |
| Beta | 3.59 | |
| Price target | $348 | +85.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 490.5M
- Net income (ttm)
- -12.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $-43.0
- P/E (forward)
- 37.4x
- Market cap
- $58.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $499.3M | $496.3M | $463.5M | $477.2M | -1.5% |
| Gross profit | $396.3M | $386.3M | $334.0M | $327.8M | -6.1% |
| Operating income | $10.5M | $804.0K | $-63.1M | $-40.9M | NaN% |
| Net income | $-1.47B | $429.1M | $-1.17B | $-3.85B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-12.98 | $2.64 | $-6.06 | $-15.23 | — |
| EBITDA | $-1.26B | $-61.0M | $-1.85B | $-5.44B | — |
| R&D | $127.4M | $120.5M | $118.5M | $93.9M | -9.7% |
| SG&A | $258.3M | $265.0M | $278.6M | $274.9M | +2.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $4.63
- Fair value (mid)
- $6.94
- Fair value (high)
- $9.81
- Current price
- $188
- Upside to mid
- -95.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | $6.60 | 95% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $13.39 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$348
+85.3%
In the news
Latest news · MSTR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $58.6B
- P/E (forward)
- 37.4x
- P/S
- 134.2x
- P/B
- 1.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.1%
- Operating margin
- -2853.1%
- ROE
- -30.8%
- ROA
- -17.8%
- ROIC
- -25.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Current ratio
- 6.05
- Quick ratio
- 5.93
Trading
- Beta
- 3.59
- Volume
- 15,985,220
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -95.8% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$9.81
-94.1% from spot
Values only the upper-bound potential of the legacy enterprise software business using expanded EV/Revenue multiples. This fundamentally ignores the digital asset treasury, reflecting only the operating unit.
- Terminal EV/Revenue multiple expands above 8x.
- Software revenue growth accelerates slightly above 4%.
Base45%
Price target
$6.94
-95.8% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Terminal EV/Revenue multiple fixed at 8x.
- Software revenue growth anchors at 3.49%.
- SOTP Net Debt / Investment Assets mechanically assumed at $0.
Bear30%
Price target
$4.63
-97.2% from spot
A contraction in the legacy software segment's core business intelligence revenues combined with margin compression. Continues to ignore the external digital asset holdings entirely.
- Software segment revenue growth decelerates below 3%.
- Normalized operating margins compress below 15%.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $6.94.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | 95% | $6.60 | -96.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $13.4 | -92.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $6.94 | -95.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($6.94). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.4% | $7.61 | $8.00 | $8.42 | $8.90 | $9.43 |
| 13.4% | $6.94 | $7.26 | $7.61 | $8.00 | $8.42 |
| 14.4% | $6.38 | $6.65 | $6.94 | $7.26 | $7.61 |
| 15.4% | $5.90 | $6.13 | $6.38 | $6.65 | $6.94 |
| 16.4% | $5.49 | $5.69 | $5.90 | $6.13 | $6.38 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management4.3
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth5.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
4.3/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 4.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 3.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 13/100
Target weight
Zero allocation for fundamental equity mandates. Only suitable for macro or digital asset portfolios seeking leveraged, structured exposure to Bitcoin volatility.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$188
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate on any sustained contraction in the equity premium to NAV or signs of credit market closure.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E37.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-30.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-25.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MSTR indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
223
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 223 of 223 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MSTR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MSTR report
What is the current MSTR stock rating?
Strategy Inc is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MSTR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MSTR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MSTR?
The latest report frames MSTR around $5 to $10. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MSTR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellMSTR · Fair value $6.94-95.8% · Confidence 13/100