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ORLY trades against a final fair-value range of $36.27-$74.49, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A prolonged period of wage inflation combined with a faster-than-expected structural shift toward lower-maintenance electric vehicles structurally depresses revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. and compresses operating margins, collapsing the historically elevated multiple.
The market abruptly reprices the equity from its current ~25x forward multiple down to historical sector averages near 15x as growth normalizes.
EV adoption accelerates beyond base assumptions, structurally reducing the size of the addressable aftermarket parts pool and suppressing long-term terminal growth.
Persistent wage inflation and elevated strategic capital expenditures fail to deliver anticipated commercial share gains, breaking the long-term margin profile.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.33B | $14.41B+8.1% | $15.81B+9.7% | $16.71B+5.7% | $17.78B+6.4% | +7.5% |
| Gross profit | $7.02B | $7.38B | $8.10B | $8.55B | $9.17B | +6.9% |
| Operating income | $2.92B | $2.95B | $3.19B | $3.25B | $3.46B | +4.4% |
| Net income | $2.16B | $2.17B+0.5% | $2.35B+8.3% | $2.39B+1.7% | $2.54B+6.3% | +4.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.07 | $2.23 | $2.56 | $2.71 | $2.97 | +9.4% |
| EBITDA | $3.25B | $3.31B | $3.62B | $3.73B | $3.99B | +5.2% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $4.10B | $4.43B | $4.92B | $5.30B | $5.71B | +8.6% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Comparable store sales miss internal estimate cross-checks for two consecutive quarters. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| SGA expenses grow structurally faster than gross profit. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
