Is Philip Morris International Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, PM looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 222 (range USD 173–USD 271), implying roughly 29.8% upside to the midpoint at that date.

What is PM's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-08, gives PM a composite fair-value range of USD 173–USD 271, with a midpoint of USD 222. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Philip Morris International Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Our latest published rating for PM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. Philip Morris International Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 171 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 222. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for PM?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-08 flags for Philip Morris International Inc. are: Global Alternative Ban; Accelerated Combustible Decline; Punitive Alternative Taxation.

Our latest published rating for PM, analyzed 2026-05-08, is Strong Buy, with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 173–USD 271) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 171).

What archetype is PM?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-08, Philip Morris International Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for PM.

What is PM's intrinsic value?

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

How do you calculate PM's fair value?

Each model produces a per-share value; the composite range comes from a weighted blend driven by the archetype's model-applicability matrix. Cost of equity, terminal growth, and the deceleration curve are documented in the assumption ledger.

Why does PM use cost of equity instead of WACC?

EPS-based models are discounted at cost of equity; FCFF models use WACC and then subtract net debt to bridge enterprise value to equity value. Each model is labelled with its discount-rate convention so the reader can verify the bridge.

What is owner earnings for PM?

Owner earnings (Buffett's definition) is net income plus depreciation and amortization minus maintenance capex. We do not subtract stock-based compensation again because net income already includes it; dilution is tracked separately via share-count growth.

PM intrinsic value: discounted earnings and owner earnings

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-08; report age: historical; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Philip Morris International is executing a successful transition from combustible tobacco to smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN), sustaining its mature compounder status through strong pricing power and high ROIC. Fair value range: low $173, high $271, with mid-point at $222.

INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

PM intrinsic value questions

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

PM — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-08, PM looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 222 (range USD 173–USD 271), implying roughly 29.8% upside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Consecutive quarters of missing smoke-free revenue and volume targets.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in excise tax parity in key European or Asian markets.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Erosion of legacy pricing power evidenced by consecutive margin compression.	Monitor

Line item	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	—	$31.76B	$35.17B+10.7%	$37.88B+7.7%	$40.65B+7.3%	+6.4%
Gross profit	—	$20.36B	$22.28B	$24.55B	$27.28B	+7.6%
Operating income	—	$12.25B	$12.22B	$13.40B	$14.93B	+5.1%
Net income	—	$9.05B	$7.81B-13.7%	$7.06B-9.6%	$11.35B+60.8%	+5.8%
EPS (diluted)	$5.83	$5.81	$5.02	$4.53	$7.26	+5.6%
EBITDA	—	$13.48B	$13.37B	$15.75B	$17.46B	+6.7%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	—	$8.11B	$10.06B	$11.15B	$12.35B	+11.1%

PM intrinsic value questions

PM — frequently asked questions

PM Philip Morris International Inc. fair value $173–$271

§1 Executive summary

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§2 Bear case

Global Alternative Ban

Accelerated Combustible Decline

Punitive Alternative Taxation

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.