Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
Rocket Lab is executing a high-risk, high-reward transition from small-lift (Electron) to medium-lift (Neutron) and high-margin space systems. The current valuation prices in flawless execution and capturing significant orbital market share from SpaceX. Fair value range: low $14.9, high $28.8, with mid-point at $21.2.
Stock analysis

RKLB fair value $15–$29

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-20Next update: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
View archive
Last price
$134.28
▼ -113.07 (-84.20%)
Fair value
$21
$15–$29
Rating
Sell
confidence 53/100
Upside
-84.2%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$18.03
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$77.7B
P/E fwd 0.0

§1 Executive summary

  • Extreme market disconnect: 62% implied growth gap required to justify current price.
  • Heavy reliance on a single relative valuation model (EV/Revenue) due to massive cash burn.
  • Significant capital intensity and dilution execution risk during the Neutron buildout phase.
Fair value
$21
Margin of safety
-533.1%
Confidence
53/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$134.28Price
Low $14.89
Mid $21.21
High $28.80

Rocket Lab is executing a high-risk, high-reward transition from small-lift (Electron) to medium-lift (Neutron) and high-margin space systems. The current valuation prices in flawless execution and capturing significant orbital market share from SpaceX.

  • Cycle upside
    Surging demand for mega-constellations and sovereign space infrastructure driving inelastic launch and hardware demand.

§2 Bear case

An aggressive 12.33% WACCWACCWeighted average cost of capital. The blended after-tax discount rate applied to free cash flows in a DCF, reflecting both equity and debt financing costs. isolates the stock's vulnerability. Any slip in Neutron's timeline triggers a severe free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. cliff, demanding highly dilutive equity raises in a capital-constrained environment to bridge the burn.

Ways this thesis can break

Neutron Development Failure

· High

Neutron experiences costly delays or launch failures, forcing highly dilutive capital raises while legacy primes compress margins.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

SpaceX Rideshare Pricing War

· High

SpaceX aggressively drops rideshare payload pricing, permanently impairing Electron unit economics and capping Space Systems margin expansion.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
0-12 months

Catastrophic Dilutive Capital Raise

· Medium

Prolonged negative free cash flows necessitate a massive equity offering at depressed valuations, permanently diluting shareholder baseline returns.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-18 months
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Space Systems gross margin failing to break 40% post-Neutron deployment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consecutive quarters of operating cash flow burn exceeding $200M.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained loss of orbital market share to SpaceX rideshare programs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delays in Neutron engine hot-fire testing or pad integration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected upward revisions in capital expenditure guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Period2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue—$211.0M$244.6M$436.2M$601.8M+30.0%
Gross profit—$19.0M$51.4M$116.1M$207.2M+81.7%
Operating income—$-135.2M$-177.9M$-189.8M$-228.8M—
Net income—$-135.9M$-182.6M$-190.2M$-198.2M—
EPS (diluted)$-0.56$-0.29$-0.38$-0.38——
EBITDA—$-95.2M$-131.7M$-129.6M$-155.5M—
R&D—$65.2M$119.1M$174.4M$270.7M+42.8%
SG&A—$89.0M$110.3M$131.6M$165.3M+16.7%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
0.84×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
-8.0%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Full report for every covered ticker
24 months of rating archive
Watchlist briefings + rating-change alerts
PDF + DOCX export in any language
Start free trial
Cancel anytime.
BALANCE SHEET FAQ

RKLB balance sheet questions

  1. RKLB (RKLB)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

RKLB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, RKLB looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $134 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $21.2 (range $14.9–$28.8), which implies roughly 84.2% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of RKLB also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit