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SBUX trades against a final fair-value range of $31.78-$49.10, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Persistent labor inflation, unionization pressures, and intense competition in China lead to permanently lower margins and flat traffic, dragging down earnings growth and limiting dividend upside.
Operating margins remain stuck at 9-10% due to permanent structural shifts in labor and input costs.
Local competitors aggressively take market share, forcing a retreat or margin-crushing price war in a key growth market.
Prolonged macroeconomic pressure causes a permanent shift away from premium coffee, impairing same-store sales.
| Line item | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.25B | $35.98B+11.6% | $36.18B+0.6% | $37.18B+2.8% | +4.9% |
| Gross profit | $8.37B | $9.85B | $9.71B | $8.47B | +0.4% |
| Operating income | $4.43B | $5.50B | $5.11B | $3.58B | -6.8% |
| Net income | $3.28B | $4.12B+25.6% | $3.76B-8.7% | $1.86B-50.5% | -17.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.83 | $3.58 | $3.31 | $1.63 | -16.8% |
| EBITDA | $6.24B | $7.40B | $7.12B | $4.82B | -8.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.03B | $2.44B | $2.52B | $2.62B | +8.8% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Significant acceleration in wage inflation or unionization efforts impacting store-level profitability. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Inability to maintain or grow active Starbucks Rewards membership. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
