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SOFI trades against a final fair-value range of $3.54-$18.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $3.54, high $18.1, with mid-point at $10.0.
Stock analysis

SOFI fair value $4–$18

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-19Next update: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Last price
$15.23
▼ -5.21 (-34.21%)
Fair value
$10
$4–$18
Rating
Sell
confidence 81/100
Upside
-34.2%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$8.52
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$19.5B
P/E fwd 19.5

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $10 with high case $18.
  • Implied downside of 34.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 81/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$10
Margin of safety
-52.0%
Confidence
81/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$15.23Price
Low $3.54
Mid $10.02
High $18.07

SOFI trades against a final fair-value range of $3.54-$18.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Bank Charter Cost of Capital
    Bank Charter Cost of Capital Advantage
  • Tech Platform Premium Multiple via
    Tech Platform Premium Multiple via Galileo/Technisys
  • Bull thesis
    The market currently prices SoFi entirely on its Forward Earnings potential ($15.22), implicitly ignoring the stark reality of the Residual Income model ($2.21).

§2 Bear case

A severe macroeconomic recession triggers widespread unsecured personal loan defaults. SoFi's balance sheet contracts, NIM compresses, and the 'AWS of Fintech' transition aborts as B2B partners slash IT spend, confining the firm to a low-multiple consumer finance valuation.

Ways this thesis can break

Unsecured Credit Contraction

· High

Credit quality in the personal loan portfolio deteriorates significantly, driving charge-offs beyond historical averages and wiping out GAAP profitability.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-18 Months

Tech Growth Stagnation

· Medium

Technology platform segment revenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY, invalidating the 15x-20x terminal multiple required for the current market valuation.

FV impact
High
Trigger
24 Months

Persistent Value Destruction

· High

Sustained ROE fails to expand past 12.5%, structurally destroying economic value against the 12.41% Cost of Equity, triggering a severe multiple contraction.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-12 Months
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Deposit growth flattening.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cost of deposits rising faster than loan yield expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Technology platform segment revenue growth decelerating below 20% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained ROE remaining below the 12.41% Cost of Equity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net charge-offs in the personal loan portfolio exceeding historical averages.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue$1.57B$2.11B$2.61B$3.61B+31.9%
Gross profit—————
Operating income—————
Net income$-320.4M$-300.7M$498.7M$481.3M—
EPS (diluted)$-0.40$-0.36$0.39$0.39—
EBITDA—————
R&D—————
SG&A$1.12B$1.23B$1.40B$1.80B+17.2%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
-7.78
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
—
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

SOFI income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of SOFI (SOFI) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

SOFI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SOFI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $15.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $10.0 (range $3.54–$18.1), which implies roughly 34.2% downside to the midpoint.

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