Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-09, STX looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 766 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 234 (range USD 164–USD 359), implying roughly 69.5% downside to the midpoint at that date.

What is STX's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-09, gives STX a composite fair-value range of USD 164–USD 359, with a midpoint of USD 234. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Seagate Technology Holdings plc's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy STX now?

Our latest published rating for STX, analyzed 2026-05-09, is Sell with a confidence score of 62/100. Seagate Technology Holdings plc looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 766 versus a fair-value midpoint of USD 234. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for STX?

The top risks our latest published report dated 2026-05-09 flags for Seagate Technology Holdings plc are: Accelerated SSD Substitution; Hyperscaler Capex Freeze; Debt Restructuring Crisis.

What is STX's rating?

Our latest published rating for STX, analyzed 2026-05-09, is Sell, with a confidence score of 62/100 and a moat score of 3/10. It reflects the composite fair-value range (USD 164–USD 359) versus the price recorded at analysis (USD 766).

What archetype is STX?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-09, Seagate Technology Holdings plc is classified as a turnaround stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for STX.

What is STX's free cash flow?

Free cash flow for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.

What does STX spend on capex?

Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.

How does STX return cash to shareholders?

The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.

STX cash flow: operating, investing, financing

Latest published researchAnalyzed 2026-05-09; report age: historical; sources: unverified. Age and source freshness are disclosed but do not remove the latest published report from discovery or indexing. Prices and valuation figures are the analysis-date snapshot, not a live quote.

Direct answer

Seagate is executing a cyclical turnaround fueled by AI datacenter restocking. However, the current share price wildly overestimates terminal growth, completely ignoring the structural decay of HDD markets. Fair value range: low $164, high $359, with mid-point at $234.

CASH FLOW FAQ

STX cash flow questions

Free cash flow for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

STX — frequently asked questions

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-09, STX looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 766 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of USD 234 (range USD 164–USD 359), implying roughly 69.5% downside to the midpoint at that date.

Metric	Current	Trigger threshold
Gross margins falling back below 20 percent.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in nearline HDD exabyte shipments.	Monitor	Deterioration versus the report thesis
Rising days inventory outstanding signaling unabsorbed capacity.	Monitor

Line item	2021-06-30	2022-06-30	2023-06-30	2024-06-30	2025-06-30	Trend
Revenue	—	$11.66B	$7.38B-36.7%	$6.55B-11.2%	$9.10B+38.9%	-6.0%
Gross profit	—	$3.47B	$1.35B	$1.54B	$3.20B	-2.0%
Operating income	—	$1.96B	$60.0M	$422.0M	$1.92B	-0.6%
Net income	—	$1.65B	$-529.0M	$335.0M	$1.47B+338.8%	-2.8%
EPS (diluted)	$5.36	$7.36	$-2.56	$1.58	—	-26.3%
EBITDA	—	$2.38B	$330.0M	$1.04B	$2.09B	-3.2%
R&D	—	$941.0M	$797.0M	$654.0M	$724.0M	-6.3%
SG&A	—	$559.0M	$491.0M	$460.0M	$561.0M	+0.1%

STX cash flow questions

STX — frequently asked questions

STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc fair value $164–$359

§1 Executive summary

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§2 Bear case

Accelerated SSD Substitution

Hyperscaler Capex Freeze

Debt Restructuring Crisis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods

Quality scores

Numbers analysis

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.