With your permission, we use privacy-limited analytics to understand which research journeys work. We do not run advertising trackers or session replay. You can change this choice in Preferences. Read the Privacy Policy.
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.
DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.
Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.
Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.
| Line item | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.43B | $6.59B+21.4% | $7.94B+20.5% | $8.83B+11.2% | +17.6% |
| Gross profit | $3.10B | $3.84B | $4.67B | $5.31B | +19.7% |
| Operating income | $2.22B | $2.92B | $3.58B | $4.19B | +23.7% |
| Net income | $866.0M | $1.30B+50.1% | $1.71B+31.5% | $2.07B+21.1% | +33.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 | +33.8% |
| EBITDA | $2.46B | $3.15B | $3.81B | $4.57B | +23.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $748.0M | $780.0M | $934.0M | $921.0M | +7.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
