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TER trades against a final fair-value range of $141.55-$251.10, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A cyclical double-dip in semiconductor test combined with failed robotics scale-up pushes fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. below $145.
Industrial macro slowdown and rising competition severely compress UR and MiR growth, eliminating the premium multiple.
Extended consumer weakness delays complex 3nm/2nm logic transitions, cratering core ATE revenues.
Failure to achieve hyper-growth expectations pops the 35x implied terminal multiple, returning to historical 22x averages.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.16B | $2.68B-15.2% | $2.82B+5.2% | $3.19B+13.1% | +0.4% |
| Gross profit | $1.87B | $1.54B | $1.65B | $1.86B | -0.2% |
| Operating income | $849.1M | $522.3M | $552.2M | $688.6M | -6.7% |
| Net income | $715.5M | $448.8M-37.3% | $542.4M+20.9% | $554.0M+2.1% | -8.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.22 | $2.73 | $3.32 | $3.47 | -6.3% |
| EBITDA | $954.8M | $640.3M | $732.4M | $788.1M | -6.2% |
| R&D | $440.6M | $418.1M | $460.9M | $504.6M | +4.6% |
| SG&A | $558.1M | $577.3M | $617.0M | $648.9M | +5.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Sustained elevated Capex/DA ratio without corresponding revenue acceleration. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Multiple compression across high-growth industrial automation peers. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
