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SIE.DE trades against a final fair-value range of $186.02-$260.45, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A prolonged global manufacturing recession deeply compresses Digital Industries margins, stunting software cross-selling and leaving the stock anchored to legacy industrial multiples.
Operating margins stall or regress due to heavy hardware cycle overshadowing Digital Industries growth.
Capex structurally rises above depreciation permanently, reversing the highly favorable asset-light free cash flow conversion trend.
The massive 4.39x PEG ratio premium unwinds as the market stops pricing in optimism significantly above the modeled 5.5% baseline expectations.
| Line item | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.98B | $74.88B+4.0% | $75.93B+1.4% | $78.91B+3.9% | +3.1% |
| Gross profit | $25.85B | $29.12B | $29.82B | $30.40B | +5.6% |
| Operating income | $7.28B | $9.40B | $9.50B | $9.09B | +7.7% |
| Net income | $3.72B | $7.95B+113.7% | $8.30B+4.4% | $9.62B+15.9% | +37.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.59 | $9.91 | $10.38 | $12.11 | +38.2% |
| EBITDA | $11.40B | $16.04B | $16.17B | $15.86B | +11.6% |
| R&D | $5.59B | $6.11B | $6.28B | $6.56B | +5.5% |
| SG&A | $12.86B | $13.55B | $13.98B | $14.83B | +4.9% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| PEG ratio premium of 4.39x relative to peers faces rapid multiple compression. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Reverse DCF implied growth rate of 7.5% proves fundamentally unsustainable. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
