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§ Tool · Valuation calculator

Discounted earnings calculator

A 10-year SBC-adjusted EPS DCF: compound earnings through a fading growth curve, discount at both a strict and a moderate cost of equity, and read the spread as a fair-value range. Same engine and same numbers as the published stock analyses.

§ What this is warning you about first

The output is highly sensitive to cost of equity and fade speed. A small error in Ke or terminal growth can dominate the whole valuation — so the model reports a strict-vs-moderate range, never a single false-precision number, and flags any run where the terminal value is doing too much of the work.

EPS DCF
Model · discounted_earnings
SBC-adj EPS
Primary input
Low / mid / high
Output range
Strict + moderate Ke
Dual discount rate
10 yr
Horizon · v1
§ Start with a preset
Three archetype starting points. Adjust anything after.
LensSBC-adjusted EPS compounded through a percentage-point fade, discounted at strict and moderate Ke./en/tools/discounted-earnings-calculator
01Earnings anchor3 fields
$
Preferred anchor. Falls back to raw EPS if ≤ 0 (reliability −0.05).
$
Fallback anchor. At least one EPS must be > 0.
$
Optional. Seeds year 1 when it shows material growth over the anchor.
02Growth path3 fields
%
Year-1 compounding rate before the fade. Defaults to 10%.
pp
Percentage-point fade per year (not a multiplier). Default 8pp.
%
Long-run rate the path floors at. Default 3%. Must be < every Ke.
03Dual discount3 fields
%
Conservative anchor — raw beta, tight ERP.
%
Typical institutional pricing — adjusted beta.
$
For upside vs the fair-value range.
04Consensus calibrationprojection seed
$
Consensus CY estimate.
$
Consensus NY estimate.
Gate: ≥3 analysts to qualify.
§ Fair value range · per share

Discounted earnings · Mature compounder

reliability 100/100 · High
FV low · strict Ke side
$141.58
-41.0%
FV mid · Ke average
$159.37
-33.6% vs price
FV high · moderate Ke side
$177.16
-26.2%
Price $240.00
Full reliability — SBC-adjusted EPS, a supplied growth estimate, and a terminal value under 60% of PV.
methodology_version = valuation-calculators.v1model_id = discounted_earnings
§ Per-Ke detail

Two discount rates, run side by side — and how much is terminal

Strict KeKe 10.5%
$141.58
fair value · per share  ·  -41.0% vs price
Terminal value share of PV49.8%
explicit 10-yr stream carries the value
Moderate KeKe 9%
$177.16
fair value · per share  ·  -26.2% vs price
Terminal value share of PV57.0%
explicit 10-yr stream carries the value
§ Projection path

The 10-year EPS growth path, fading 3pp/yr toward 3% terminal

11.0Y1
8.0Y2
5.0Y3
3.0Y4
3.0Y5
3.0Y6
3.0Y7
3.0Y8
3.0Y9
3.0Y10
Anchor EPS$9.00
Year-1 model EPS$9.99
Year-2 model EPS$10.79
Decel / terminal3pp → 3%
§ Projection method · how year 1-2 were seeded
TTM visibility fade · ttm_eps_visibility_fade

No usable forward or consensus signal, so the path starts at the supplied growth rate and fades uniformly by the deceleration toward terminal — the fallback method.

§ EPS anchor · SBC adjustment
ttm_sbc_adjusted_eps
anchor = $9.00  ·  sbcAdjustedEps $9.00  ·  rawEps $9.50

SBC-adjusted EPS is present and anchors the projection, so the share-base dilution from stock-based compensation is priced in. The path compounds from this anchor through the fade.

§ Reliability factorsscore 100/100
No penalties applied — reliability held at 1.00.
§ Formula trace

Every step, derived

  1. projectionMethod = ttm_eps_visibility_fade · epsAnchor = ttm_sbc_adjusted_eps ($9.00)
  2. growthRates[10] = [11.0, 8.0, 5.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0]% · decel 3pp/yr → terminal 3%
  3. year1ModelEps = 9.99 · year2ModelEps = 10.79
  4. Strict Ke 10.5% → FV 141.58 · terminal 49.8% of PV
  5. Moderate Ke 9% → FV 177.16 · terminal 57.0% of PV
  6. fairValue = { low 141.58, mid 159.37, high 177.16 } (spread across Ke)
§ Calculator contract

One stable kernel contract — same as the reports

Reference the model by its stable id discounted_earnings, not the display label. The dedicated page, the all-model workbook, and the report pipeline all hit the same endpoint and reconcile to the same fair value.

Slug/en/tools/discounted-earnings-calculator
Kernel model iddiscounted_earnings · role eps_dcf
Valuation lens10-yr SBC-adjusted EPS DCF, dual Ke reported as a range
Primary inputSBC-adjusted EPS (raw EPS fallback) + strict & moderate Ke
Outputstatus (computed / excluded / failed) + fairValue (low / mid / high) + per-run terminal_value_pct + reliability
Methodologyvaluation-calculators.v1
§ Notes

This surface is statelessand runs entirely in your browser — nothing you type is saved or sent anywhere. The same kernel powers the per-stock reports, so the fair value here reconciles with the report's discounted_earnings output for the same inputs. Triangulate against the other lenses in the all-model workbook.

All-model workbook →Read methodologymethodology_version = valuation-calculators.v1
§ FAQ

Five things worth knowing

Q01Why two cost-of-equity runs reported as a range, not one fair value?+
The single biggest source of error in an earnings DCF is the discount rate, and it is the input people are least sure of. So the model runs both a strict Ke (raw beta, tight equity risk premium — the conservative anchor) and a moderate Ke (adjusted beta averaging raw, sector, and Bloomberg-adjusted — typical institutional pricing) and reports the spread. If the gap between the two is wide, that is the signal: your fair value is dominated by the Ke assumption, not by the earnings path. A single point would hide that.
Q02Why deceleration in percentage points, not a multiplier?+
Deceleration here is a percentage-point fade, not a multiplicative haircut. A 19% starting growth with an 8pp/year decel becomes 19% → 11% → 3% and then floors at terminal — not 19% × 0.92 → 17.5%. Multiplicative haircuts let durable growers compound for too long and systematically overvalue them; the percentage-point convention forces growth to actually converge on terminal growth within the explicit window.
Q03Why SBC-adjusted EPS instead of raw EPS?+
Stock-based compensation is a real economic cost — it dilutes the share base — so discounting raw EPS systematically overvalues SBC-heavy companies (most of tech). The model prefers SBC-adjusted EPS (ideally excess-only: SBC above the sector median) and only falls back to raw EPS when the adjusted figure is missing, in which case reliability drops and the sbc_adjustment_missing factor is flagged. The audit shows both numbers so you can see which anchored the run.
Q04What does the FAILED status mean — is it the same as excluded?+
No. Excluded means the model is structurally inapplicable to the archetype (REITs use NAV/AFFO, pre-profit names use EV/Revenue). FAILED is different: it means you supplied a Ke that is less than or equal to the terminal growth rate, so the Gordon terminal value mathematically diverges. Rather than silently emit a meaningless number, the kernel refuses and tells you to raise Ke or lower terminal growth.
Q05How much of the fair value is terminal value — and why does it matter?+
Terminal value as a percentage of present value is a first-class output, reported per Ke run. When terminal value exceeds 60% of the total, the explicit ten-year stream is doing little of the work and the answer becomes hypersensitive to Ke and fade speed — so reliability drops by 0.20 and the audit flags terminal_value_high. It is the canonical "the terminal value is doing the work" warning.