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§ Tool · Valuation calculator

Forward earnings calculator

A 5-year EPS-scenario fair value: bull / base / bear earnings paths, probability-weighted and discounted at cost of equity. One of eleven kernels behind the published stock analyses: same engine, same numbers.

§ What this is warning you about first

Forward earnings models look precise exactly when the terminal multiple does too much of the work. Stress the bear case and the probability weights before trusting the midpoint, and remember the smooth path is an assumption, not a forecast.

Scenario EPS
Model · forward_earnings
Forward EPS
Primary input
Low / mid / high
Output range
Ke
Discount rate
v1
Methodology
§ Start with a preset
Three archetype starting points. Adjust anything after.
LensBull/base/bear EPS, probability-weighted, discounted at Ke./en/tools/forward-earnings-calculator
01Earnings anchor2 fields
$
Required > 0 (unless forward EPS is given).
$
Optional. Used only if it passes the archetype reset + P/E sanity test.
02Growth & terminal5 fields
%
Base-case starting growth; scenarios scale from here.
×
Multiple applied to year-5 EPS.
%
Growth the path decelerates toward.
pp
Cap on how fast growth fades each year.
%
Ceiling on any single-year growth.
03Discount2 fields
%
The discount rate: Ke, not WACC.
$
For upside vs fair value and the forward-P/E sanity check.
04Scenario weights & policyprobabilities
Σ 1.00 ✓
§ Fair value range · per share

Forward earnings · Mature compounder

reliability 85/100 · High
FV low · bear
$167.54
-41.2%
FV mid · weighted
$238.02
-16.5% vs price
FV high · bull
$318.82
+11.9%
Price $285.00
High. A 5-year growth estimate was supplied.
methodology_version = valuation-calculators.v1model_id = forward_earnings
§ Per-scenario detail

Three earnings paths, faded toward 3% terminal growth

Bearw 0.25
$167.54
present value · per share
Y27.2%Y35.2%Y43.2%Y53.0%
Equiv. CAGR4.6%
Terminal P/E19.2×
EPS · year 5$13.43
Future price$258
Basew 0.50
$232.85
present value · per share
Y212.0%Y39.0%Y46.0%Y53.0%
Equiv. CAGR7.4%
Terminal P/E24.0×
EPS · year 5$14.93
Future price$358
Bullw 0.25
$318.82
present value · per share
Y215.6%Y312.6%Y49.6%Y56.6%
Equiv. CAGR11.0%
Terminal P/E28.8×
EPS · year 5$17.03
Future price$491
§ Input audit · EPS anchor
forward_eps_anchor
anchor = $11.20 · growth years 4 · discount years 5

Forward EPS ($11.20) is positive, archetype-sane (ratio 1.18× ∈ [1.00, 5.0]) and better reflects the model horizon than trailing EPS. First growth step treated as consumed.

§ Scenario policy source
deterministic_fallback_fade_path

No analyst policy supplied. The deterministic fade path generated bear (0.6× growth, 0.8× P/E) and bull (1.3× growth, 1.2× P/E) from the base case.

§ Formula trace

Every step, derived

  1. anchorEps = 11.20 (forward_eps_anchor) · growthYears = 4 · discountYears = 5
  2. scenarioSource = deterministic_fallback_fade_path
  3. Bear: g₀ 7.2% → CAGR 4.6% · PE 19.2× · EPS₅ 13.43 · px 258 · PV 167.54 · w 0.25
  4. Base: g₀ 12.0% → CAGR 7.4% · PE 24.0× · EPS₅ 14.93 · px 358 · PV 232.85 · w 0.50
  5. Bull: g₀ 15.6% → CAGR 11.0% · PE 28.8× · EPS₅ 17.03 · px 491 · PV 318.82 · w 0.25
  6. fairValue = { low 167.54 (bear PV), mid 238.02 (weighted), high 318.82 (bull PV) }
§ Calculator contract

One stable kernel contract, same as the reports

Reference the model by its stable id forward_earnings, not the display label. The dedicated page, the all-model workbook, and the report pipeline all hit the same endpoint.

Slug/en/tools/forward-earnings-calculator
Kernel model idforward_earnings · role eps_dcf
Valuation lensScenario EPS, discounted at Ke
Primary inputForward EPS (with archetype-sane anchor fallback to TTM)
Run endpointPOST /api/v1/valuation-calculators/run · model_id: "forward_earnings"
Response contractresult.status + result.fairValue (low / mid / high) + reliability
§ Notes

This surface is stateless. The same kernel powers the per-stock reports, so the numbers reconcile across surfaces rather than drifting. Run the same stock through the all-model workbook to triangulate against the other ten lenses.

All-model workbook →Read methodologymethodology_version = valuation-calculators.v1
§ FAQ

Four things worth knowing

Q01Why a range and probability weights instead of one price target?+
A forward-earnings model looks precise exactly when the terminal multiple is doing too much of the work. The output is therefore a range: bear present value (low), probability-weighted (mid), bull present value (high). You read the spread and the weights, not a single false-precision midpoint. If even the bull case sits below the current price, the stock is expensive; if the bear case is already above it, it is interesting.
Q02Why does it sometimes use forward EPS and sometimes trailing EPS?+
Forward EPS is not trusted blindly. The calculator runs an archetype-specific sanity test: the forward/trailing ratio has to fall inside a reset band (e.g. up to 5× for a mature compounder, 12× for hyper-growth) and the implied forward P/E has to be sane. If forward EPS passes, it anchors the model and the first growth year is treated as already consumed; if it fails, the model falls back to trailing EPS compounded across the full five years. The chosen anchor and the reason are shown in the input audit.
Q03What is the faded growth path, and why not a flat CAGR?+
Projecting a hyper-growth name at a flat current growth rate for five straight years overstates it. Each scenario instead gets a growth PATH that decelerates toward the terminal growth rate, so a 35% starting pulse fades year by year rather than persisting. Each scenario card shows its full per-year path and the equivalent CAGR it implies.
Q04Ke or WACC: which discount rate does this use?+
Cost of equity (Ke), not WACC. This is an EPS-DCF: it discounts equity-level earnings outcomes, so the equity discount rate is correct. Enterprise cash-flow models (FCFF DCF) use WACC. They are not interchangeable. The model self-excludes for REIT and pre-profit archetypes, which need the NAV/AFFO and EV/Revenue lenses respectively.