Tool · Analogs · as of 2026-05-09
Historical analog explorer
What this is warning you about first. the analog result is intentionally withheld until the dataset reaches the minimum history threshold. A premature nearest-neighbour claim would look precise while resting on too little regime history.
Status
Building
No analogs published yet
Coverage
2024-05 to 2026-05
Actual collected history
Snapshots
24 / 36
Minimum before matching
First match
2027-05
Expected threshold month
Closest historical setups
Building 5-year history
Building history
Building 5-year history — first analog match available 2027-05
24 of 36 regime snapshots collected.
Cosine similarity over the standardised macro feature vector requires at least 36 historical snapshots before any past period is a defensible analog. The tool will switch on automatically once that threshold is met.
Forward outcomes (available once history is collected)
Forward-outcome rows will appear once 36 regime snapshots are collected (currently 24).
First analog match available 2027-05. The table is intentionally blank rather than back-filled with synthetic rows — a placeholder forward-return is worse than no forward-return.
No historical analog rows are published yet. The dataset temporal coverage is 2024-05-09/2026-05-09, and the first analog match becomes available in 2027-05.
See the full open data catalog for every dataset behind the research stack.
Frequently asked questions
- Why is the analog list blank right now?
- The explorer is still building history. It does not publish analog rows until the regime-snapshot ledger reaches the 36-snapshot minimum, because a nearest-neighbour result from a short ledger would be too easy to over-cite.
- When does the first match become available?
- The current collected coverage runs from 2024-05 to 2026-05, with the first analog match expected in 2027-05 once the required 36 snapshots are present.
- Will the explorer use synthetic backfill?
- No. The table intentionally stays blank instead of using synthetic rows or retrospective placeholders. The first published analog set will come from the actual snapshot ledger.
- How will similarity be computed after launch?
- The ready-state explorer will compare the current macro feature vector against prior snapshots using standardised breadth, valuation, credit, rotation, and regime-score inputs. Until the threshold is met, the page publishes the method but not any match claims.