Are the returns total return or price return?

Total return, including dividends. The cap-weight is taken from the SPDR sector ETFs as the simplest reproducible proxy.

Why three windows and not one?

Rotation is a cross-window signal, not a single-window signal. A sector with a positive 12M and a sharply negative 1M is a different setup from one that is negative across all three; the heatmap has to show both for the read to be honest.

What is the neutral band?

Cells with absolute returns under 0.5% render in neutral tone. The threshold is editorial — small returns are noise at monthly cadence, not signal.

Can I use this for short-term trading?

No. The data refreshes monthly. The heatmap is a context tool for monthly allocation reviews, not an intraday or weekly trading aid.

Tool · Rotation · as of 2026-05-09

Sector heatmap

What this is warning you about first. defensive leadership over the trailing month — Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare — is a late-cycle tell, not a congratulations. Cyclical underperformance in Materials, Real Estate, and Discretionary is the corner of the market that historically breaks first when revisions deteriorate. The 12-month column still reads bullish; the 1-month column says the rotation is live.

1M leader

Utilities

+4.1%

1M laggard

Real Estate

−3.2%

Defensive 1M avg

+2.7%

XLU, XLP, XLV

Cyclical 1M avg

−1.8%

XLY, XLB, XLRE

Sector

Window

	1M	3M	12M
Technology	−0.4%	+4.2%	+26.8%
Communication Services	+1.1%	+5.6%	+22.4%
Consumer Discretionary	−2.1%	+1.8%	+14.6%
Industrials	−0.8%	+2.4%	+11.2%
Consumer Staples	+2.4%	+4.1%	+6.8%
Healthcare	+3.1%	+5.2%	+8.4%
Energy	+0.6%	−1.2%	−2.4%
Utilities	+4.1%	+6.6%	+7.2%
Materials	−1.6%	−0.4%	+2.1%
Financials	−0.2%	+1.6%	+9.4%
Real Estate	−3.2%	−2.8%	−1.6%

Cap-weighted total return per GICS sector over the trailing window. Cells under 0.5% absolute render neutral; beyond that the tint scales with the magnitude.

Sector × window data table

Sector

12M

Technology

−0.4%

+4.2%

+26.8%

Communication Services

+1.1%

+5.6%

+22.4%

Consumer Discretionary

−2.1%

+1.8%

+14.6%

Industrials

−0.8%

+2.4%

+11.2%

Consumer Staples

+2.4%

+4.1%

+6.8%

Healthcare

+3.1%

+5.2%

+8.4%

Energy

+0.6%

−1.2%

−2.4%

Utilities

+4.1%

+6.6%

+7.2%

Materials

−1.6%

−0.4%

+2.1%

Financials

−0.2%

+1.6%

+9.4%

Real Estate

−3.2%

−2.8%

−1.6%

Returns are total return, sourced from the SPDR sector ETF series for reproducibility. The heatmap reads cross-sectionally; one window in isolation is noise, the cross-window pattern is signal.

See the full open data catalog for every dataset behind the research stack.

Frequently asked questions

Are the returns total return or price return?: Total return, including dividends. The cap-weight is taken from the SPDR sector ETFs as the simplest reproducible proxy.
Why three windows and not one?: Rotation is a cross-window signal, not a single-window signal. A sector with a positive 12M and a sharply negative 1M is a different setup from one that is negative across all three; the heatmap has to show both for the read to be honest.
What is the neutral band?: Cells with absolute returns under 0.5% render in neutral tone. The threshold is editorial — small returns are noise at monthly cadence, not signal.
Can I use this for short-term trading?: No. The data refreshes monthly. The heatmap is a context tool for monthly allocation reviews, not an intraday or weekly trading aid.

Every tool here is a thin lens on the same evidence the per-ticker reports use. Inputs, scoring rules, and exclusions are documented in the methodology. Read the full methodology.