Sector heatmap
Cap-weighted total return across the eleven GICS sectors over three lookback windows — 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month — in one matrix. Cells tint bull-green or bear-red beyond a 0.5% neutral band so leadership and laggards stand out without prose. This is a chart you read, not a calculator you drive.
Defensive leadership over the trailing month — Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare — is a late-cycle tell, not a congratulations. Cyclical underperformance in Materials, Real Estate, and Discretionary is the corner of the market that historically breaks first when revisions deteriorate. The 12-month column still reads bullish; the 1-month column says the rotation is live.
11 GICS sectors × 3 lookback windows
Cap-weighted total return per GICS sector over the trailing window. Cells under 0.5% absolute render neutral — small returns are noise at monthly cadence, not signal; beyond that the tint scales with magnitude.
What rotation is active right now? Defensive bid, cyclical recovery — this is the column that signals regime change.
Is the 1M move a noise blip or a sustained shift? Three months absorbs single-day rebalances while still reading current.
Bull or bear trend? A 1M defensive bid in a +25% YoY market is regime-change risk; the same bid in a −10% market is the trend continuing.
Reading any single column in isolation is noise. Energy (+0.6 / −1.2 / −2.4) is a fresh 1M bounce off a longer downtrend — a single-column reader would miss it. Real Estate (−3.2 / −2.8 / −1.6) is the only sector red across all three windows.
The same snapshot, in numbers
Signed cap-weighted total returns. Green beyond +0.5%, red beyond −0.5%, neutral within the band. Bold weight marks any move beyond the noise threshold.
| Sector | ETF | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | XLK | −0.4% | +4.2% | +26.8% |
| Communication Services | XLC | +1.1% | +5.6% | +22.4% |
| Consumer Discretionary | XLY | −2.1% | +1.8% | +14.6% |
| Industrials | XLI | −0.8% | +2.4% | +11.2% |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | +2.4% | +4.1% | +6.8% |
| Healthcare | XLV | +3.1% | +5.2% | +8.4% |
| Energy | XLE | +0.6% | −1.2% | −2.4% |
| Utilities | XLU | +4.1% | +6.6% | +7.2% |
| Materials | XLB | −1.6% | −0.4% | +2.1% |
| Financials | XLF | −0.2% | +1.6% | +9.4% |
| Real Estate | XLRE | −3.2% | −2.8% | −1.6% |
Returns are sourced from the SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLC, XLY, XLI, XLP, XLV, XLE, XLU, XLB, XLF, XLRE) — the simplest reproducible proxy for cap-weighted GICS sector total return, verifiable from public price data with no vendor licensing. The heatmap reads cross-sectionally: one window in isolation is noise; the cross-window pattern is signal. Sector rotation is one input into the top-down view — the macro outlook synthesizes it with breadth, valuation dispersion, and regime classification. It refreshes monthly: a context tool for monthly allocation reviews, not an intraday or weekly trading aid.