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AAPL trades against a final fair-value range of $141.47-$258.93, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A combined shock of App Store margin compression via regulation and a hardware upgrade freeze would structurally reset Apple's terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). and multiple. Under this stress, the intrinsic floor rests near $141, anchored purely by the capital return program.
Global antitrust actions force an open ecosystem, compressing App Store margins and eliminating default search revenue.
Lack of compelling edge-AI use cases pushes hardware upgrade cycles past 4.5 years, permanently resetting growth expectations.
Escalating trade tensions severely restrict Asian manufacturing capacity or consumer market access, crushing margins.
| Line item | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $394.33B | $383.29B-2.8% | $391.04B+2.0% | $416.16B+6.4% | +1.8% |
| Gross profit | $170.78B | $169.15B | $180.68B | $195.20B | +4.6% |
| Operating income | $119.44B | $114.30B | $123.22B | $133.05B | +3.7% |
| Net income | $99.80B | $97.00B-2.8% | $93.74B-3.4% | $112.01B+19.5% | +3.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.11 | $6.13 | $6.08 | $7.46 | +6.9% |
| EBITDA | $130.54B | $125.82B | $134.66B | $144.75B | +3.5% |
| R&D | $26.25B | $29.92B | $31.37B | $34.55B | +9.6% |
| SG&A | $25.09B | $24.93B | $26.10B | $27.60B | +3.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Material reduction in the pace of share repurchases. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Adverse rulings in ongoing international App Store litigation. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
