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AMGN trades against a final fair-value range of $366.98-$644.16, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A bear caseBear caseThe worst-realistic outcome — what happens if our top three risks materialize together. Used to set the floor of our fair-value range and inform position sizing. scenario assumes a 20% margin compression and 5% annual revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. decline. This resets the fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. to the $366 level, providing a margin of safetyMargin of safetyThe discount required between fair value and current price before we recommend buying. Typically 15% for wide-moat names, 25–35% for cyclicals or low-confidence cases. near current market prices.
Obesity pipeline asset MariTide fails to meet efficacy or safety endpoints in Phase 2/3, removing the primary growth re-acceleration catalyst.
CMS negotiations result in net price reductions exceeding 40% for top assets Enbrel and Prolia, significantly faster than model decay assumptions.
Synergies from the Horizon acquisition fail to materialize while high interest rates increase the burden of the $54.6B debt load, strangling FCF.
| Line item | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.32B | $28.19B+7.1% | $33.42B+18.6% | $36.75B+10.0% | +11.8% |
| Gross profit | $19.92B | $19.74B | $20.57B | $24.71B | +7.5% |
| Operating income | $9.57B | $7.90B | $7.26B | $9.08B | -1.7% |
| Net income | $6.55B | $6.72B+2.6% | $4.09B-39.1% | $7.71B+88.5% | +5.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.11 | $12.49 | $7.56 | $14.23 | +5.5% |
| EBITDA | $12.17B | $14.80B | $13.36B | $16.90B | +11.6% |
| R&D | $4.43B | $4.78B | $5.96B | $7.27B | +17.9% |
| SG&A | $5.41B | $6.18B | $7.10B | $7.05B | +9.2% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Net Debt to EBITDA ratio expanding above 4.5x | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Negative revenue growth in the 'Growth' product segment | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
